The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) seems to be running out of luck following its defeat in a legislative by-election in Miaoli County on Saturday. Miaoli has long been a KTM stronghold, so it came as a surprise that the by-election was won by Kang Shih-ju (康世儒), who quit the party to run as an independent. The result marks an end to the series of election successes the KMT has enjoyed since 2005 and should serve as a warning to party leaders.
Saturday’s by-election was the first since Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) became president, so it could be viewed as a touchstone of public opinion toward his administration’s performance.
Taiwan’s import and export trade figures have dropped by between 30 percent and 40 percent since Ma took office. GDP is falling, unemployment climbing and many workers are on unpaid leave. The gloomy outlook is in stark contrast to Ma’s “6-3-3” campaign pledges — 6 percent annual economic growth, annual per capita income of US$30,000 by 2016 and unemployment below 3 percent.
The downturn may be global, but some figures show Taiwan’s economy sinking faster than its Asian neighbors. Ma and Premier Liu Chao-shiuan (劉兆玄) claim to be satisfied with their administration’s performance despite a series of policy bungles. No wonder voters have shown their discontent with the KMT.
Ma’s prescription for Taiwan’s sluggish economy is to accelerate the opening of cross-strait exchanges by signing an economic cooperation framework agreement with China. However, the government has failed to consult with the public, and there are worries that cheap Chinese products and labor may worsen the slump in Taiwan’s agriculture and industry. Miaoli, an agricultural county, is all the more sensitive to the potential impact of Chinese imports.
The KMT’s smug attitude is another reason for its election loss. The KMT assumed that factional support in Miaoli would always be to its advantage, but this time the factions shifted in Kang’s favor. KMT candidate Chen Luan-ying (陳鑾英) is the wife of Lee E-tin (李乙廷), who lost his legislative seat over vote buying and made the by-election necessary. With arrogant disregard for public opinion, the KMT put forward a tainted candidate and voters said “enough is enough.”
The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) knew it would be a mistake to put forward a weak candidate. The KMT could use former DPP president Chen Shui-bian’s trial on corruption charges to divert public attention away from local issues. The DPP would certainly lose such a contest, causing another blow to its already low morale. So, instead of proposing its own candidate, the DPP backed Kang.
Miaoli is an electoral desert for the DPP, but on this occasion its support for Kang helped strike a blow against the KMT. If the DPP adopts a similar strategy in county and city-level elections at the end of this year, the KMT may yet be unseated in some of its traditional strongholds.
The by-election result has been a slap in the face for the KMT and has shaken its monopoly on power. Miaoli’s voters have told the KMT in no uncertain terms that they can’t be relied on to vote for the party when its performance, policies and candidate are not good enough. Late this month another by-election will be held, this time in Taipei City’s Da-an District. Da-an is also a KMT stronghold, but this by-election was brought about by former KMT legislator Diane Lee’s (李慶安) resignation after she was found to have dual nationality. This puts the KMT at a disadvantage. If the KMT fails to learn the lesson from its defeat in Miaoli, it might lose its footing in Da-an, too.
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