US administrations typically suffer temporary loss of international influence as their time in office draws to a close. But rarely has Washington’s global prestige and leverage fallen so low as in the dog days of US President George W. Bush’s eight-year reign. This debilitation is a source of concern for the US’ friends — and a dangerous opportunity for its enemies, who hope such weakness can be both exploited and made permanent.
The US-triggered economic crisis has reinforced hostile perceptions of US vulnerability.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad gleefully invited Iranians to listen to the sound of global power crashing to the ground.
ILLUSTRATION: MOUNTAIN PEOPLE
Ali Akbar Nateq-Nuri, senior adviser to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, told a prayer meeting that Bush’s reported refusal to back an Israeli military strike on Iran was another sign of failing US will.
Nateq-Nuri claimed Washington’s “retreat” showed US and European support for Israel was diminishing. Seen from Washington, this interpretation looks patently absurd. Yet the fact that a top figure in Tehran apparently believes a future attempt to destroy Israel would meet with reduced resistance from the Western powers is deeply worrying.
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is also aggressively exploiting Bush’s lame duck troubles in his bid to reassert Moscow’s great power status. Analysts suggest Russia’s invasion of Georgia in August was based in part on calculations, since vindicated, that Bush would be unwilling or unable to react forcefully.
Now Putin appears to be threatening Ukraine, accusing Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko of sending weapons and military personnel to help Georgia.
“When people and military systems are used to kill Russian soldiers, it’s a crime,” Putin said last week.
US Republican presidential candidate Senator John McCain is warning that Putin is encouraging the ethnic Russian population of Ukraine’s Crimea region to break with Kiev. But at present the US is mostly a spectator.
Russian President Dmitri Medvedev is meanwhile busily rubbing American noses in the financial dirt — and pointing to long-term strategic consequences of the crisis.
“The times when one economy and one country dominated are gone for good,” Medvedev said.
To American ears his words uncomfortably echoed German Finance Minister Peer Steinbruck, an ostensible ally, who said “the US will lose its superpower status in the world financial system.”
Americans have been reminded that schadenfreude is, after all, a German word.
Some countries are seeking shorter-term advantage from US troubles. North Korea may be counting on a new, possibly Democratic, administration to gain a more favorable nuclear disarmament deal. Similar considerations have helped freeze the Middle East peace process.
But uncertainty over the US’ — and its allies’ — will to win in Afghanistan, and over how quickly the US will get out of Iraq, is affecting longer-term political calculations in Islamabad, Kabul and Baghdad. It may also be encouraging the Taliban and al-Qaeda in their escalating campaigns of violence. They read the newspapers and the Internet, too. And with the US’ purse strings tightly stretched, they must wonder whether a new administration can afford the tens of billions of dollars needed to pursue two unpopular wars.
In the US’ backyard, ideological enemies such as Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez are hoping for a permanent shift in power in a region historically dominated by the US.
“The world will never be the same after this crisis,” Chavez said during a visit to Brazil. “We are decoupling from the wagon of death.”
His host, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, complained bitterly that Washington spent years telling Latin America how to get its economic house in order — and then ignored its own advice.
Yet despite all the weaknesses, it would be foolish to start writing obituaries for US power.
Former Bosnian war peacemaker Richard Holbrooke, writing in the journal Foreign Affairs, suggested that the US’ ambition remains undiminished. The next president, said Holbrooke, who is tipped as a possible secretary of state in an Obama administration, would also inherit “a nation that is still the most powerful in the world — a nation rich with the continued promise of its dynamic and increasingly diverse population, a nation that could, and must, again inspire, mobilize and lead the world.”
War, possibly global, will define the coming decade — so it is crucial that Taiwanese decide now what their freedom and their lives are worth — perhaps starting with a defense budget of 5 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The force that threatens Taiwan, the Communist Party of China (CCP) and its People’s Liberation Army (PLA), asserts that a free, or even worse, an “independent” Taiwan is the greatest threat to the CCP’s dictatorship. Accordingly, they are prepared to kill Taiwanese by the millions, which also will initiate their longer war against democracies. Should it succeed, Chinese sources are all but openly
Russian President Vladimir Putin probably believed in his heart that after invading Ukraine it would be left with no choice but to take a beating with no means of fighting back. He likely believed Ukraine would use up all of its might to defend itself and be left with no energy to turn the fight around and into Russia. He was relaxed and unburdened. Regardless of which direction the war would take, the fight would never leave Ukrainian territory. The Russian public believed the same thing and did not concern themselves with the war, with some even going so far
Oil, copper, soybeans and a handful of others monopolized the attention — but of all commodities, the humble lump of iron ore benefited the most from the Chinese economic boom of the past 25 years. It was an astonishing bonanza: From the late 1990s to earlier this year, iron ore prices jumped nearly 10-fold, more than any other major commodity; traded volume tripled; Australian commodity tycoons become billionaires; mining companies turned, even briefly, into Wall Street darlings; and mighty legal battles broke for control of the last untapped mineral deposits. Now, it is over: The greatest commodity boom thus far of the
The Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) and its chairman and former presidential candidate Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) are embroiled in a series of political donation scandals, and many believe the political ramifications could be significant, threatening the party’s future. In the past two weeks, analysts questioned the party’s use of political donations it received during the election campaign, based on donation disclosure data published by the Control Yuan. The data showed that Ko’s campaign office made several questionable payments to marketing companies, including the marketing firm Muko (木可行銷公關). Two marketing companies said they did not receive the three payments totaling NT$9.16 million (US$285,982) that