Exposing Russia’s weakness
Not since the German invasion of Czechoslovakia have we seen such a blatant violation of the sovereignty of a liberal democratic state (not even in Taiwan — yet) and a slap in the face of the West.
It is vital that the West push back in order to exploit the internal contradictions of the dual-headed Russian government, exposing Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin as a dictator and President Dmitry Medvedev as a puppet and forcing the Russians to take a hard look in the mirror as they decide what kind of country they want to live in.
At present, Russia is attempting to expose the West’s internal contradictions — namely the dichotomy between pursuing a liberal democratic world order on the one hand and insisting on a system based on international law and treaties on the other.
NATO’s unilateral action in Kosovo is having much the same effect the US action in Iraq has had. The Russians broke their word in Georgia partly in order to remind the international community how NATO broke its word in Kosovo, Serbia’s Chechnya.
The West is indeed hypocritical in refusing to acknowledge that its insistence on human rights and self-determination is a revolutionary challenge to the status quo.
Even so, Western hypocrisy in Kosovo, Iraq and Taiwan is far preferable to the Russian hypocrisy at work in the Caucasus. By keeping a stranglehold on Georgia, the Russians hope to emasculate the Georgian g asculated the government of former Serbian president Slobodan Milosevic.
It might be imprudent to intervene in an overtly military fashion in the Caucasus at the moment, but it will send a shiver down the spine of every US ally on the frontlines in Europe, the Middle East and Asia and could lead to a resuscitated Russian empire.
Apart from overt military intervention to restore the territorial integrity of Georgia, the only alternative is to do everything in our power to sustain Georgian democracy, and over the long haul, to strengthen military, economic and diplomatic ties in the regions surrounding Russia: in Europe (eg, Ukraine), the Middle East, Central Asia and East Asia, including China.
By doing so, we create an opportunity to pressure the Chinese into doing some hard thinking of their own — to join the fitfully emerging liberal order or stand alongside an unpredictable and explosive Russian regime with nothing to offer but oil.
There is undoubtedly the risk that China would side with Russia, but by doing so, it would have to risk both Taiwan and the international trade that keeps the Chinese regime afloat.
Russia might be gloating over its masterstroke in the Caucasus for the moment and scaring the hell out of small new democracies around Russia and China, but with a touch of audacity and foresight this crisis can be transformed into an opportunity for freedom in both Europe and Asia.
In the meantime, one hopes that the Taiwanese security establishment is taking note of the larger ramifications of Russia’s precipitous action in Georgia.
J. TAVIS OVERSTREET
Chiayi
A return to power for former US president Donald Trump would pose grave risks to Taiwan’s security, autonomy and the broader stability of the Indo-Pacific region. The stakes have never been higher as China aggressively escalates its pressure on Taiwan, deploying economic, military and psychological tactics aimed at subjugating the nation under Beijing’s control. The US has long acted as Taiwan’s foremost security partner, a bulwark against Chinese expansionism in the region. However, a second Trump presidency could upend decades of US commitments, introducing unpredictability that could embolden Beijing and severely compromise Taiwan’s position. While president, Trump’s foreign policy reflected a transactional
There appears to be a growing view among leaders and leading thinkers in Taiwan that their words and actions have no influence over how China approaches cross-Strait relations. According to this logic, China’s actions toward Taiwan are guided by China’s unwavering ambition to assert control over Taiwan. Many also believe Beijing’s approach is influenced by China’s domestic politics. As the thinking goes, former President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) made a good faith effort to demonstrate her moderation on cross-Strait issues throughout her tenure. During her 2016 inaugural address, Tsai sent several constructive signals, including by acknowledging the historical fact of interactions and
Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) has prioritized modernizing the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to rival the US military, with many experts believing he would not act on Taiwan until the PLA is fully prepared to confront US forces. At the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th Party Congress in 2022, Xi emphasized accelerating this modernization, setting 2027 — the PLA’s centennial — as the new target, replacing the previous 2035 goal. US intelligence agencies said that Xi has directed the PLA to be ready for a potential invasion of Taiwan by 2027, although no decision on launching an attack had been made. Whether
HSBC Holdings successfully fought off a breakup campaign by disgruntled Asian investors in recent years. Now, it has announced a restructuring along almost the same east-west lines. The obvious question is why? It says it is designed to create a simpler, more efficient and dynamic company. However, it looks a lot like the bank is also facing up to the political reality of the growing schism between the US and China. A new structure would not dissolve HSBC’s geopolitical challenges, but it could give the bank better options to respond quickly if things worsen. HSBC spent 2022 battling to convince shareholders of
RSS