President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) first tour overseas as president has been overshadowed by several incidents. The status of Ma’s transit trough the US did not meet Taiwan’s expectations, while at the same time China suddenly caused a furor by equivocating on what Taiwan should be called during the Beijing Olympics.
Meanwhile, rumors spread through the media that there were problems with finding a suitable candidate for Taiwan’s new representative to Japan. And on top of that, there has been speculation that the US has put a freeze on arms sales to Taiwan as well as news that Taiwan and Japan almost came to blows over the Diaoyutai issue.
These developments are vastly different from what everyone expected when Ma said that he would turn Taiwan into a force for peace in East Asia and that he would work hard at upholding good relations between Taiwan and the US and Japan.
We cannot explain the changes in the US’ and Japan’s attitude toward Taiwan by saying that the US needs China for help in their war against terrorism and for assistance in dealing with North Korea or that Japan wishes to remain friendly with China. For the US, becoming bogged down in its war on terrorism, with the war in Iraq and its need for China’s help in dealing with North Korea aren’t things that suddenly appeared with Ma’s accession to power. The US did not freeze arms sales to Taiwan just because of China. In the same way, Taiwan’s claim to sovereignty over the Diaoyutai island chain was not invented by Ma, although over the last 20 years of Taiwan-Japan relations, there has never been a time when the two sides even mentioned going to war over the issue.
Basically, the US and Japan have changed their attitude toward Taiwan because they doubt the diplomatic strategies of the Ma administration and its tactical approach in dealing with the issue. On the second day after Ma’s election, he announced that he intended to visit Japan without first talking it over with Tokyo. The brash way in which Ma’s government left no room for compromise in handling the Diaoyutai issue, giving no consideration to the fact that the issue affects Taiwan’s status in relation to the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the US and Japan, and the way the government kept repeating the same thing time and again set up new variables. The long delay of the arms procurement bill, a good indicator of US-Taiwan cooperation on security issues, has also hurt mutual trust between the two countries.
In addition, by allowing rumors to circulate about the candidate for Taiwan’s representative to Japan before having discussed the issue with Japan, Ma put Tokyo in an awkward position. All of these incidents have hurt the trust and confidence the US and Japan once held in Taiwan.
However, the most basic issue at hand is that the US and Japan have doubts about Ma’s international strategies. Ma believes the development of cross-strait relations will also benefit the US and Japan. However, if cross-strait relations and relations between Taiwan, the US and Japan are viewed as zero-sum games, the US and Japan may not necessarily agree with Ma. Before his inauguration, Ma declared that priority would be placed on cross-strait relations over diplomatic relations, with his future foreign minister saying that a “diplomatic truce” was needed. In response to these comments, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice reminded Taiwan that the US and Taiwan have important relations with each other that must not be forgotten, a hint for Ma not to predicate a definition of US-Taiwanese relations on relations across the Taiwan Strait.
However, developments after this made many people on the US side realize that significant strategic changes had already taken place in Taiwan. In the past, Taiwan always believed that security cooperation between the US and Taiwan was beneficial for Taiwan when dealing with China. However, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) has now said they want the US to announce a temporary freeze on arms sales to Taiwan. This suggests that Taipei views security cooperation with the US as a negative factor in cross-strait relations and not a bargaining chip that they can use with China.
Tokyo also believes that Ma’s increasing allegiance toward China comes at the expense of colder relations with Japan. Apart from announcing on two occasions that Taiwan could go to war with Japan over the Diaoyutai Islets, Ma’s idea about relying on China to save Taiwan’s ailing economy is totally against reservations the international community has about China’s economy in the post-Olympic era. Tokyo just cannot fathom how a country with an annual GDP per capita exceeding US$16,000 would want to rely on a country with an annual GDP per capita lower than US$2,000.
Many analysts cite Ma’s series of pro-China policies as proof that his government is indeed moving closer to China and further away from the US and Japan, saying this is the only possible explanation for the strange logic behind Ma’s economic and political policies.
Ma complains that the media are unable to understand that his cross-strait policies have a deeper significance for changing the situation in East Asia. The actions of his government have definitely changed the situation in East Asia; however, none of these changes are beneficial to Taiwan.
Asking that a temporary freeze be placed on arms sales has made the US wonder why it should keep taking the blame from China for selling arms to Taiwan if Taiwan itself believes arms sales are not beneficial to stability in the Taiwan Strait.
Ma’s rashness in dealing with the Diaoyutai issue has also made officials from Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs say in private that the uncertainty of Taiwan’s strategy will make Japan reconsider its position on security and prepare in advance for threats from a unified China and Taiwan.
Now that Taiwan has lost a lot of the trust it once had from the US and Japan, China has seized the opportunity to belittle Taiwan by using the name “Taipei, China.” These problems all stem from the changes in how the US and Japan now view Taiwan.
We cannot expect any breakthrough in cross-strait relations with Ma’s inferior diplomacy strategies because they cause the US and Japan to doubt him. If Ma fails to understand that an allegiance with the US and Japan is the only way to go for Taiwan, if he keeps causing trouble and continues to use China to keep the US and Japan in check, Taiwan will lose the trust of the US and Japan.
Once that trust is gone, and if China does not buy Ma’s fawning, Taiwan could move from being a country that is isolated strategically to one that is totally isolated.
Lai I-chung is an executive committee member of the Taiwan Thinktank.
Translated by Drew Cameron
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