Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) announced her candidacy for Sinbei City soon after she was re-elected as DPP chair yesterday. As expected, Tsai’s margin of victory was significant, thus cementing her position as leader and adding to the political leverage she will need to reform the party.
Tsai’s rise as party boss has been remarkable, not least because it has been so quick. She only joined the party in 2004 after performing a series of largely anonymous governmental tasks, including drafting former president Lee Teng-hui’s (李登輝) “special state-to-state” model of relations with China.
Tsai’s brief history with the party also means she has little of the factional baggage of party heavyweights. She is also calm and fresh, attributes that attract moderates. In 2008, Tsai became the first woman to lead the party by defeating two male colleagues, both more senior and more doctrinaire in their political views.
Tsai’s victory against another DPP stalwart yesterday — by defeating former Taipei County commissioner You Ching (尤清) — again proves that party members prefer pragmatism to radicalism, and for good reason. Under her direction, the party has made significant gains since its defeat in the 2008 presidential election. She recently initiated a 10-year policy plan to address the needs of the next generation of Taiwanese, broaden the party platform and distinguish it from that of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT). Now reaffirmed in her position, Tsai promises to continue turning the DPP into a credible party of the future.
With the internal election over, grand schemes must give way to practical politics. First on Tsai’s list are the year-end special municipality elections. These polls are important for the DPP, which must make a good showing if it is to have any chance in the 2012 presidential election. For Tsai, the November races are doubly important because she has decided to run for Sinbei mayor. She did not offer any details about her decision last night, but it must have been a tough one. A concerted effort had been made to convince Tsai to run for office in either Sinbei City or Greater Taichung, but she had appeared to be unenthusiastic about becoming a candidate.
There were two sides to the question as to whether Tsai should run or not. One the one hand, she is now a proven leader, and with her personal appeal, it is quite possible she will make a winning candidate. In addition to her electability, Tsai winning a key political office could create a coattail effect. Sinbei City will be strategically important in 2012, especially if the DPP also carries Taipei City. Victory in one or both would help remedy the party’s usual weakness in the north.
Many have also complained that Tsai lacked practical experience of the kind she will gain from fighting an election. This argument has gained traction since her anemic showing against President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), a veteran campaigner, in their recent debate.
As strong as these arguments are, Tsai’s ambivalence was understandable. For one thing, given her inexperience, rushing into an important election like Sinbei City might squander her political capital. A loss in November might lower her chances at public office and certainly opponents of her reforms in the DPP would like nothing better than to see her weakened by a poor showing at the polls.
Now as Tsai has decided to run, she will be preoccupied with her own campaign, as well as those of the party’s four other candidates in the November polls. Whether she prevails will depend, to a great extent, on the support she receives from her own party.
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