The risk of war between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan has increased with the redeployment of troops along the common border, but neither can afford the cost of such a conflict, analysts say.
The two sides have raised tensions by whipping up war hype for domestic reasons since the Mumbai attacks last month, but must step back from the brink to focus on more pressing issues such as the spread of militancy, they say.
A war is even less likely as the US, a key ally of both Islamabad and New Delhi, would suffer as a result, the experts warn.
“The risk of war has increased with troop mobilization,” said Hasan Askari, a political analyst and former head of the political science department at the University of Punjab. “However this does not necessarily mean that the two countries will go to war. There are a number of considerations which impel the two sides not to cross the red line.”
Senior Pakistani security and defense officials said on Friday the military had moved a “limited number” of troops fighting Taliban militants in the tribal areas near Afghanistan to the Indian border as a “minimum security” measure.
This followed intelligence intercepts indicating that India had put its forces on notice to move to the border and canceled all leave, they said. An Indian army spokesman, however, said that no troops had been moved.
Retired Pakistani general Talat Masood said: “While the political and military leadership in both countries don’t want war to happen, this action-and-reaction phenomenon is promoting escalation.”
Both sides say they do not want war but would respond if attacked.
Indian Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee has said that “all options” are open since the Mumbai attacks, which New Delhi has blamed on Pakistan-based militants. The attacks left 172 people dead.
“By declaring all options are on the table, New Delhi has pushed Pakistan toward a limited war scenario — something which Islamabad was reluctant to contemplate a couple of weeks ago,” defence analyst Riffat Hussain said.
Hussain, the head of strategic studies at Islamabad’s Quaid-e-Azam University, said any escalation could lead to a catastrophic point of no return that no one could envision.
“As nuclear-armed adversaries, India and Pakistan cannot afford any kind of shooting war between them,” he said.
Analysts say while tensions in South Asia may persist for some time, they will eventually be defused because of international interest in the region, especially in Washington.
Askari said US and Western interests in Afghanistan would be “threatened” if Pakistan were to pull significant numbers of troops out of the tribal areas, as it would expose foreign forces to more cross-border militant attacks.
Such a withdrawal would also endanger the flow of supplies to NATO and US forces in Afghanistan, as the roads through northwest Pakistan would not be secure, he said.
Masood agreed, saying: “Pakistan should be focusing more on the tribal territories to fight al-Qaeda and control Talibanization. Any diversion will be disastrous for the country, for the region and for international peace.”
POLITICAL PRISONERS VS DEPORTEES: Venezuela’s prosecutor’s office slammed the call by El Salvador’s leader, accusing him of crimes against humanity Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele on Sunday proposed carrying out a prisoner swap with Venezuela, suggesting he would exchange Venezuelan deportees from the US his government has kept imprisoned for what he called “political prisoners” in Venezuela. In a post on X, directed at Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Bukele listed off a number of family members of high-level opposition figures in Venezuela, journalists and activists detained during the South American government’s electoral crackdown last year. “The only reason they are imprisoned is for having opposed you and your electoral fraud,” he wrote to Maduro. “However, I want to propose a humanitarian agreement that
ECONOMIC WORRIES: The ruling PAP faces voters amid concerns that the city-state faces the possibility of a recession and job losses amid Washington’s tariffs Singapore yesterday finalized contestants for its general election on Saturday next week, with the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) fielding 32 new candidates in the biggest refresh of the party that has ruled the city-state since independence in 1965. The move follows a pledge by Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong (黃循財), who took office last year and assumed the PAP leadership, to “bring in new blood, new ideas and new energy” to steer the country of 6 million people. His latest shake-up beats that of predecessors Lee Hsien Loong (李顯龍) and Goh Chok Tong (吳作棟), who replaced 24 and 11 politicians respectively
Young women standing idly around a park in Tokyo’s west suggest that a giant statue of Godzilla is not the only attraction for a record number of foreign tourists. Their faces lit by the cold glow of their phones, the women lining Okubo Park are evidence that sex tourism has developed as a dark flipside to the bustling Kabukicho nightlife district. Increasing numbers of foreign men are flocking to the area after seeing videos on social media. One of the women said that the area near Kabukicho, where Godzilla rumbles and belches smoke atop a cinema, has become a “real
‘WATER WARFARE’: A Pakistani official called India’s suspension of a 65-year-old treaty on the sharing of waters from the Indus River ‘a cowardly, illegal move’ Pakistan yesterday canceled visas for Indian nationals, closed its airspace for all Indian-owned or operated airlines, and suspended all trade with India, including to and from any third country. The retaliatory measures follow India’s decision to suspend visas for Pakistani nationals in the aftermath of a deadly attack by shooters in Kashmir that killed 26 people, mostly tourists. The rare attack on civilians shocked and outraged India and prompted calls for action against their country’s archenemy, Pakistan. New Delhi did not publicly produce evidence connecting the attack to its neighbor, but said it had “cross-border” links to Pakistan. Pakistan denied any connection to
RSS