US President George W. Bush rightly called Pakistan's recent national and provincial elections "a victory for [its] people."
But even as he uttered those words, his administration was working behind the scenes to subvert the will of the Pakistani people by trying to dictate the composition of their next coalition government and prop up the election's biggest loser, President Pervez Musharraf.
Bush is playing a dangerous game, risking the collapse of Pakistan's political process for the sake of his own legacy.
Millions of Pakistanis delivered a clear message at the polls. Collectively, they voted against Musharraf and religious extremists and in favor of democracy, the rule of law and good governance.
Nationally, no single party received a majority, but the centrist, democratic opposition won more than 70 percent of the National Assembly seats. The Musharraf-allied faction of the Muslim League party (PML-Q) came in third, polling only 15 percent, despite the assistance of surgical vote-rigging. Most of its senior leaders were defeated in their constituencies -- including one who hadn't lost an election in 26 years. The PML-Q, created in 1999 by Pakistan's intelligence agencies, is now political dead wood.
ALLIANCE
An alliance between the two largest parties, the late Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and Nawaz Sharif's Muslim League faction (PML-N) is what the country needs and what most Pakistanis want. The PPP and PML-N have the numbers to form a unity government. They also realize that this is perhaps their last chance to "save" Pakistan.
Together with the pro-democracy army chief, General Ashfaq Kayani, this coalition can address Pakistan's most pressing challenges, including terrorism. With the addition of smaller parties and independents to the coalition, they can also impeach Musharraf and restore the judiciary, which he had deposed.
This is unpalatable to the Bush administration, which has helped keep Musharraf in power, despite the fact that 75 percent of Pakistanis want him to resign.
The Bush administration considers the PML-N's nationalism and antagonism to Musharraf particularly troublesome. Sharif has called for Pakistan's foreign policy to be debated in parliament, but supports continued cooperation with the US. His party also wants the sacked Supreme Court justices to be restored.
The US government, however, endorsed the justice's illegal removal, seeing the court's insistence on constitutional accountability for Musharraf as complicating its regional objectives. The court, for example, required Musharraf to present alleged terror suspects -- some of whom were likely "rendered" to Pakistan by the CIA -- detained for years without government acknowledgment.
Of course, a popular, democratically elected government and an independent judiciary in Islamabad complicate relations with the US. Democracy is intrinsically messy, but it won't jeopardize Pakistan's partnership in the war on terror.
IMPATIENT
The Bush administration, however, has become used to dealing with one man and is increasingly impatient. In its final year, it would like to increase the odds of a Republican victory in November's US presidential election. Toward this end, progress in Pakistan and Afghanistan would be highly valuable.
As a result, the Bush administration is aggressively interfering in coalition talks between Pakistan's political parties. It wants to pair the PPP with the discredited PML-Q and isolate the PML-N. US Ambassador to Pakistan Anne Patterson, for example, has held a joint meeting with senior Musharraf adviser Tariq Aziz and PPP Co-Chairman Asif Ali Zardari, Bhutto's widower.
US Vice President Dick Cheney's office is also reportedly playing an active role. Zardari, in a joint press conference with Sharif, refused to answer a question about whether there is pressure from the US to ally with Musharraf. But he and Sharif did agree "in principle" to form a government.
The Bush administration's forceful manipulation of Pakistan's political leadership is dangerous for both Pakistan and the US. Its favored arrangement could divide the opposition, keep Musharraf ascendant and provide continuity in the Pakistani army's campaign against militants.
But it would also likely delegitimize the next government before it comes into power, rupture Pakistan's largest political party and create a nationalist backlash against the US.
The US needs to take a step back and let Pakistan's political process proceed naturally. The end result might not be optimal, but if the Bush administration overplays its hand, it could find itself partnerless in Pakistan.
Arif Rafiq is the editor of the Pakistan Policy Blog.
Copyright: Project Syndicate
Concerns that the US might abandon Taiwan are often overstated. While US President Donald Trump’s handling of Ukraine raised unease in Taiwan, it is crucial to recognize that Taiwan is not Ukraine. Under Trump, the US views Ukraine largely as a European problem, whereas the Indo-Pacific region remains its primary geopolitical focus. Taipei holds immense strategic value for Washington and is unlikely to be treated as a bargaining chip in US-China relations. Trump’s vision of “making America great again” would be directly undermined by any move to abandon Taiwan. Despite the rhetoric of “America First,” the Trump administration understands the necessity of
In an article published on this page on Tuesday, Kaohsiung-based journalist Julien Oeuillet wrote that “legions of people worldwide would care if a disaster occurred in South Korea or Japan, but the same people would not bat an eyelid if Taiwan disappeared.” That is quite a statement. We are constantly reading about the importance of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), hailed in Taiwan as the nation’s “silicon shield” protecting it from hostile foreign forces such as the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and so crucial to the global supply chain for semiconductors that its loss would cost the global economy US$1
US President Donald Trump’s challenge to domestic American economic-political priorities, and abroad to the global balance of power, are not a threat to the security of Taiwan. Trump’s success can go far to contain the real threat — the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) surge to hegemony — while offering expanded defensive opportunities for Taiwan. In a stunning affirmation of the CCP policy of “forceful reunification,” an obscene euphemism for the invasion of Taiwan and the destruction of its democracy, on March 13, 2024, the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) used Chinese social media platforms to show the first-time linkage of three new
Sasha B. Chhabra’s column (“Michelle Yeoh should no longer be welcome,” March 26, page 8) lamented an Instagram post by renowned actress Michelle Yeoh (楊紫瓊) about her recent visit to “Taipei, China.” It is Chhabra’s opinion that, in response to parroting Beijing’s propaganda about the status of Taiwan, Yeoh should be banned from entering this nation and her films cut off from funding by government-backed agencies, as well as disqualified from competing in the Golden Horse Awards. She and other celebrities, he wrote, must be made to understand “that there are consequences for their actions if they become political pawns of
RSS