Even by the day it appears that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is getting deeper into trouble in its campaign to retain the presidency. This is not helped by do-nothing senior members of the party such as Vice President Annette Lu (
Lu and a number of other embarrassing party members command an inordinate degree of respect despite their political stupidity and/or laziness.
In this regard the party is all too similar to the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), which also seems unable to unload "old guard" freeloaders in its party framework and the legislature.
There was always going to have be a reckoning for the DPP's terrible performance in the legislative elections -- "performance" here referring to the manner in which the campaign was conducted, regardless of any structural disadvantages the party was facing.
The problem is that the DPP lacks a coherent strategy and merit-based hierarchy to do this.
Indeed, the party does not have the remotest idea how to begin to reinvigorate itself for the next legislative poll in 2012, let alone for a presidential election in two months.
Former premier Yu Shyi-kun was DPP chairman for most of President Chen Shui-bian's (
Instead, it seems to have concentrated on spoils for established figures, such as Legislator Chai Trong-rong (
Some will argue that the KMT's domination of resources makes any DPP incursion into local politics a futile affair. This is only true if the DPP thinks that local sentiment is not worth fighting for.
If KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou (
DPP supporters will be disappointed by the public's willingness to reward the boycott of the legislature with an increased majority.
They will wonder why it is that the public could support a party that would threaten to cut off Taiwan Post's budget because it refused to print a stamp designed by a KMT legislator, that would cripple arms spending in the face of a deadly threat from China, and that would shut down the arm of the government that monitors the performance of public servants simply because it could.
The answer is in the party's name: Taiwan is a "democratic" state, and people do not always vote for what candidates consider virtuous.
Party strategists must realize that it cannot mobilize moderate supporters using ideological battles and reliance on White Terror nostalgia at election time -- a fault that was most apparent in its advertising campaign.
In the end the message is clear: The KMT has what it takes to win legislative elections and the DPP does not -- and it may not for many elections to come, assuming, of course, that under a KMT government Taiwan can survive as a sovereign state.
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) were born under the sign of Gemini. Geminis are known for their intelligence, creativity, adaptability and flexibility. It is unlikely, then, that the trade conflict between the US and China would escalate into a catastrophic collision. It is more probable that both sides would seek a way to de-escalate, paving the way for a Trump-Xi summit that allows the global economy some breathing room. Practically speaking, China and the US have vulnerabilities, and a prolonged trade war would be damaging for both. In the US, the electoral system means that public opinion