When I was told I should prepare for the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) winning the presidential election in March, I acknowledged that it was a possibility. I pointed out that once the KMT takes hold of Taiwan, it would use the nation as a lever, trading sovereignty for some opportunity to get into China.
After all, for the past 50 years, Taiwan has been nothing more to the KMT than a piggy bank and parking space, as the party's dream has always been to return to China.
For the other half of Taiwan, there is no going "back." There is only here. The problem is "here" never seems to be enough. Many Taiwanese long to be part of something bigger, something powerful. This accounts in some way for the strange fascination and appreciation that some have for developments at the hands of the Japanese colonialists -- if they could overlook the death, destruction and cultural genocide the Japanese wrought.
By the same token, some Taiwanese appreciate the KMT dictatorship for the contributions the party had made to the economy and industrial development. However, they do not welcome the prejudice, the racism and the derogatory attitude toward people considered "too Taiwanese" that persists to this day.
So what are we faced with? Two months from the election, and we still don't know what KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou (
All of this will be done at the expense of Taiwan. After all, Taiwan is merely a bargaining chip, something to be thrown in as part of some deal -- a deal that may already have been made. For the KMT, Taiwan is not something of value, not a place to stay in, but only a place worth leaving. And with Ma comes the opportunity to finally find a place in the sun in China once again.
Yes, cross-strait tensions will lessen, but only because a Ma administration will have moved toward surrendering Taiwan's sovereignty.
Perhaps the KMT will agree to outlaw the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
Perhaps the KMT will use its majority to adopt China's "Anti-Secession" Law in Taiwan and use it to suppress any talk of independence.
Perhaps once again talk of independence will become a crime and DPP members may become targets of arrest.
Taiwan will once again become a one-party town. And it will no longer be Taiwan. It will become Chinese Taipei, an island built around a city.
With the lowering of all barriers to investment in China, Taiwan will lose all of its industry to China and become the Honolulu of China, a mere tourist island, where international fame comes from its betelnut beauties.
For many people, that may be the only job left, after all the high-tech jobs have fled to China.
I don't know if all of these will happen or not. But if Taiwanese were to elect the KMT, giving it a legislative majority and the presidency, they will be voting for their own demise.
Lee Long-hwa
New York
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) were born under the sign of Gemini. Geminis are known for their intelligence, creativity, adaptability and flexibility. It is unlikely, then, that the trade conflict between the US and China would escalate into a catastrophic collision. It is more probable that both sides would seek a way to de-escalate, paving the way for a Trump-Xi summit that allows the global economy some breathing room. Practically speaking, China and the US have vulnerabilities, and a prolonged trade war would be damaging for both. In the US, the electoral system means that public opinion
RSS