The Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) has announced an economic growth rate of 6.92 percent for the third quarter, up from 5.24 percent for the second quarter. This is 2.45 percentage points higher than the government's forecast of 4.47 percent in August and 1.76 percentage points higher than the average forecast of 5.16 percent made by 12 Dow Jones economists. The DGBAS has thus revised its forecast of 4.58 percent to 5.46 percent, an increase of 0.88 percentage points.
The gradual revitalization of the economy has made several politicians lose their bearings. Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) vice presidential candidate Vincent Siew (
Last week, Yeh Wan-an (
As national economic statistics follow a set of strict, internationally observed procedures, Wei and Yeh should understand that forecasts and outcomes are often inconsistent and that discrepancies can be large. It is not so much that the statistics are wrong but that the economic environment cannot be controlled.
For example, Singapore's economic growth forecast based on annualized third quarter growth was 6.4 percent, but the final figure was only 4.3 percent -- a discrepancy of 2.1 percent.
As a reflection of the uncertainty of the global economy, the Singaporean government has forecast that growth next year will fall between 4.5 percent and 6.5 percent. The difference of 2 percentage points is meant to accommodate a large discrepancy between the forecast and reality.
As for the US, the forecast annual growth rate based on annualized third quarter figures is 4.9 percent, 1 percentage point higher than the rough forecast of 3.9 percent a month earlier. This is the highest third quarter growth in the last four years. Contrary to expectations, the subprime mortgage crisis didn't have an impact on third quarter growth.
The real manipulators of distorted economic figures are politicians. The question of whether economic growth benefits all sectors of society is a matter of income distribution and whether deteriorating trade conditions will hurt proportional income growth.
Anyone contesting growth figures because of existing income distribution problems is unprofessional or lost in the attempt to manipulate political interests.
During President Chen Shui-bian's (
From a GDP perspective, Taiwan has returned to a potential level of approximately 5 percent growth after undergoing the 2001 economic recession when the global high-tech bubble burst.
It is impressive to see Taiwan's economy retaining such resilience and flexibility after suffering years of political conflict.
However, Taiwan's worsened trade conditions have indeed meant that real GDP, which is used to calculate economic growth, includes a high proportion of illusory income -- according to my estimate, approximately 4 percent in 2004, 6 percent in 2005 and 7 percent last year.
In part, this is a reflection of how domestic industry is climbing the technological ladder, but also that their efforts to develop high-end products have been insufficient.
This is something the government should draw up careful and effective policies to deal with.
Hwan C. Lin is a research fellow at the Taiwan Public Policy Council and associate professor of economics at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte.
Translated by Ted Yang
President William Lai (賴清德) attended a dinner held by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) when representatives from the group visited Taiwan in October. In a speech at the event, Lai highlighted similarities in the geopolitical challenges faced by Israel and Taiwan, saying that the two countries “stand on the front line against authoritarianism.” Lai noted how Taiwan had “immediately condemned” the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel by Hamas and had provided humanitarian aid. Lai was heavily criticized from some quarters for standing with AIPAC and Israel. On Nov. 4, the Taipei Times published an opinion article (“Speak out on the
The image was oddly quiet. No speeches, no flags, no dramatic announcements — just a Chinese cargo ship cutting through arctic ice and arriving in Britain in October. The Istanbul Bridge completed a journey that once existed only in theory, shaving weeks off traditional shipping routes. On paper, it was a story about efficiency. In strategic terms, it was about timing. Much like politics, arriving early matters. Especially when the route, the rules and the traffic are still undefined. For years, global politics has trained us to watch the loud moments: warships in the Taiwan Strait, sanctions announced at news conferences, leaders trading
Eighty-seven percent of Taiwan’s energy supply this year came from burning fossil fuels, with more than 47 percent of that from gas-fired power generation. The figures attracted international attention since they were in October published in a Reuters report, which highlighted the fragility and structural challenges of Taiwan’s energy sector, accumulated through long-standing policy choices. The nation’s overreliance on natural gas is proving unstable and inadequate. The rising use of natural gas does not project an image of a Taiwan committed to a green energy transition; rather, it seems that Taiwan is attempting to patch up structural gaps in lieu of
News about expanding security cooperation between Israel and Taiwan, including the visits of Deputy Minister of National Defense Po Horng-huei (柏鴻輝) in September and Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Francois Wu (吳志中) this month, as well as growing ties in areas such as missile defense and cybersecurity, should not be viewed as isolated events. The emphasis on missile defense, including Taiwan’s newly introduced T-Dome project, is simply the most visible sign of a deeper trend that has been taking shape quietly over the past two to three years. Taipei is seeking to expand security and defense cooperation with Israel, something officials
RSS