Wed, Dec 19, 2007 page8

• Tsao's plan for strait peace won't hold water

  • By Chuang Po-lin 莊柏林
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  ON DEC. 4, former United Microelectronics Corp (UMC) chairman Robert Tsao (曹興誠) ran his third newspaper ad, once again pushing for a cross-strait peaceful coexistence law. His argument was based on Article 8 of China's "Anti-Secession" Law, which claims that de jure independence will inevitably result in a military invasion by Beijing.

  But Tsao failed to notice another sentence in Article 8: "In the event that possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted, the state shall employ non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity."

  In other words, even if Taiwan does not formally declare independence, Beijing may still employ non-peaceful means if Taipei rejects unification talks. Thus, if Taiwanese were to vote against unification in a pro-unification referendum as proposed by Tsao, that would also constitute a reason for China to employ military means.

  Tsao's proposal for a cross-strait peaceful coexistence law clearly excludes the option of independence. Taiwanese can only choose between unification and maintaining the "status quo," and both options are unfavorable to Taiwan.

  As for the unification option, China is an authoritarian one-party state controlled by the Chinese Communist Party(CCP), which does not allow opposition political parties that might threaten party rule. If unified, Taiwanese have no reason to doubt that their ability for self-government would be severely compromised, if not erased completely.

  In terms of maintaining the "status quo," Beijing's "one China policy" has left Taiwan with only 24 tiny diplomatic allies while the world's leading powers, including the US, the UK, France, Germany, Russia and Japan have severed diplomatic ties.

  Since it is unable to join the UN and other international organizations, Taiwan's security, health, economy and dignity are facing difficult challenges. This is the "status quo" we are left with.

  The only reason for Tsao to exclude the option of de jure independence is the possibility of a violent reaction from China. However, with Beijing hosting the 2008 Olympic Games and Shanghai hosting the 2010 World Expo, China needs to maintain the appearance of a peaceful and prosperous environment.

  Taiwan's defensive capability has been sharply weakened by the pan-blue camp's obstruction of the arms procurement bill, but it still has enough missiles to launch counterattacks on major coastal Chinese cities, as well as the Three Gorges Dam. China should be aware of the consequences.

  Moreover, peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait are protected both by US-Japan cooperation and the US' Taiwan Relations Act.

  In terms of economic strength, China's total production value reached US$2.626 trillion last year while Taiwan's reached US$364 billion.

  Meanwhile, the US had US$13.194 trillion and Japan had US$4.365 trillion. Together, the US, Japan and Taiwan's output value was US$17.923 trillion -- about seven times higher than the Chinese figure.

  In light of the joint strength of the US, Japan and Taiwan, we should be able to effectively prevent a Chinese invasion.

  National self-determination tallies with the trend toward universal democratic values and is a principle protected by the UN Charter. China should not violate this trend.

  Tsao's cross-strait peaceful coexistence law is designed based on China's stance and is aimed at undermining Taiwan's determination to declare independence and formally establish a new nation. It is clearly laden with serious blind spots.

  Chuang Po-lin is a lawyer.

  Translated by Eddy Chang
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