Since the 1990s, southern Taiwan has become a pan-green political stronghold. As a result, people often believe that support for Taiwanese independence is far more prevalent in the south. However, this conception is merely a stereotype.
According to polls conducted by Focus Survey Research, in Yunlin, Chiayi, Nantou, Kaohsiung and Pingtung counties, 77.6 percent of the population believe that Taiwanese sovereignty belongs to Taiwan's 23 million people. However, even more than that -- 80.4 percent -- in Taipei believe the same thing.
Pan-blue support in northern Taiwan is not a matter of anti-independence. According to cross analysis, the higher the education level and the lower the age group, the more one is likely to support Taiwanese independence. Therefore, although the Taipei region has the highest concentration of Mainlanders, it also has the highest concentration of youngsters from every ethnic group receiving a higher education. Therefore, the reasons behind southern Taiwan's pan-green and northern Taiwan's pan-blue predilections must be sought outside of the independence issue.
There are two explanations for this.
First, the backlash from the Chinese Nationalist Party's (KMT) long-term support of the north over the south. Before 2000, KMT election results in the south maintained a 60 percent advantage. After President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) come to power in 2000, his subsequent policy for equal development in north and south created a strong response in the south resulting in a major change in voting patterns.
Second, there are the effects of globalization on Taiwan -- the gap between winners and losers is increasing, with the north winning and the agricultural south losing. Taiwan's economy was already integrating with the global economy when China joined the world production line in the 1990s, resulting in the export of industry and the rise of unemployment in Taiwan. Like other regions on the losing side, many in southern Taiwan reject further globalization, with the added implication that support is sliding for the KMT's continual encouragement of China-bound investment.
Figures provided by the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics show Taipei City ranked highest in annual disposable income in 2002 at around NT$38,000 followed in descending order by Hsinchu City, Kaohsiung City, Taipei County, Taichung City and Taoyuan County at above NT$26,000. Of these areas, four are northern, with only one from central and one from southern Taiwan. Moreover, in Yunlin, Chiayi, Kaohsiung and Pingtung counties, annual disposable income came in at below NT$23,000 -- only about 60 percent of the annual disposable income in Hsinchu.
Not only does the south have lower disposable income levels, but its income growth is also slower. Along Taiwan's west coast, the highest rate of growth in income is in Hsinchu City, with a NT$7,200 rise between 1988 and 2006. After Hsinchu, the highest areas of growth are in Taipei County, Kaohsiung City, Taipei City, and Miaoli County. The real winner is of course Taipei City, which remained stable even during the 2001 economic slump.
These figures imply that the KMT would be gravely miscalculating the situation if it thought it could oppose Taiwan independence while focusing on the support of the educated population of the north. Now that the pan-blue camp is following DPP initiatives such as the bid to enter the UN, the gap on sovereignty between the two camps has been reduced.
Economic growth and disposable income are likely to become stronger determining factors of public support.
Lin Cho-shui is a former Democratic Progressive Party legislator.
Translated by Angela Hong
Concerns that the US might abandon Taiwan are often overstated. While US President Donald Trump’s handling of Ukraine raised unease in Taiwan, it is crucial to recognize that Taiwan is not Ukraine. Under Trump, the US views Ukraine largely as a European problem, whereas the Indo-Pacific region remains its primary geopolitical focus. Taipei holds immense strategic value for Washington and is unlikely to be treated as a bargaining chip in US-China relations. Trump’s vision of “making America great again” would be directly undermined by any move to abandon Taiwan. Despite the rhetoric of “America First,” the Trump administration understands the necessity of
US President Donald Trump’s challenge to domestic American economic-political priorities, and abroad to the global balance of power, are not a threat to the security of Taiwan. Trump’s success can go far to contain the real threat — the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) surge to hegemony — while offering expanded defensive opportunities for Taiwan. In a stunning affirmation of the CCP policy of “forceful reunification,” an obscene euphemism for the invasion of Taiwan and the destruction of its democracy, on March 13, 2024, the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) used Chinese social media platforms to show the first-time linkage of three new
If you had a vision of the future where China did not dominate the global car industry, you can kiss those dreams goodbye. That is because US President Donald Trump’s promised 25 percent tariff on auto imports takes an ax to the only bits of the emerging electric vehicle (EV) supply chain that are not already dominated by Beijing. The biggest losers when the levies take effect this week would be Japan and South Korea. They account for one-third of the cars imported into the US, and as much as two-thirds of those imported from outside North America. (Mexico and Canada, while
The military is conducting its annual Han Kuang exercises in phases. The minister of national defense recently said that this year’s scenarios would simulate defending the nation against possible actions the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) might take in an invasion of Taiwan, making the threat of a speculated Chinese invasion in 2027 a heated agenda item again. That year, also referred to as the “Davidson window,” is named after then-US Indo-Pacific Command Admiral Philip Davidson, who in 2021 warned that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) had instructed the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. Xi in 2017
RSS