Chinese President and General-Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Hu Jintao (
Late last month, the Chinese government pointedly expressed, through pro-Chinese media in Taiwan, its strong opposition to a Taiwan UN referendum. The report said that Hu had emphasized at a meeting of the CCP leadership that waging war against Taiwan was the only task of the Chinese military. He also proposed five phases in the CCP's use of force against Taiwan: preparation for military battle, engagement of military threats, blocking off the Taiwan Strait, all-out attack on Taiwan, and landing on Taiwan.
In the meantime, however, he also addressed six major concerns over the use of force against Taiwan: next year's Beijing Olympics could be affected, coastal business in southeast China could be harmed, China's diplomatic image could be tarnished, introduction of foreign investments could be thwarted, the risk of military casualties and a slowdown of the modernization of China.
Judging from the first part of Hu's speech, the CCP's use of force against Taiwan seems to be pending. But the statement that waging war against Taiwan is the only task of the Chinese military is a huge lie, which is only used to threaten Taiwan and comfort domestic forces. There is no way the CCP would concentrate all its military forces on the Fujian Province front line, ignoring other possible military threats. And the military also needs to cooperate with police to suppress large-scale civil uprisings in the country.
Former Chinese president Jiang Zemin (江澤民) had already imitated the second phase of military threats against Taiwan, which proved to be ineffectual. Would Hu dare jump directly to the third, fourth or even the fifth phase?
Hu's six major concerns poured cold water on the Chinese military and the "angry youth," or youth displaying a high level of Chinese nationalism. His concern that war could result in huge military sacrifices serves as a direct warning to the generals who are busy making money and enjoying the fruits of a corrupt life.
There are reasons why Hu brought up his concerns. First of all, between 60 percent and 70 percent of Taiwanese consider themselves Taiwanese rather than Chinese. Even with China's opposition, more than half of Taiwanese support Taiwanese independence. It is this cohesion that deters China from invading Taiwan.
Secondly, the US government says it has a responsibility to defend the security of Taiwan.
Thirdly, the top officials in the CCP's political bureau are all civilians. If they launch a war, power will fall into the hands of the military.
Hu still has some problems controlling the armed forces. As a result, a big personnel shuffle in the armed forces was launched in the run-up to the CCP's 17th National Congress next month. The commanders in five of China's seven military regions have been replaced, while many of the generals with practical control over the forces have switched places with generals in charge of military schools in order to prevent them from holding military power for too long.
This, however, doesn't mean that the CCP will not attack Taiwan. If China's bubble economy collapses after next year's Olympics or the 2010 World Expo, the Chinese government could use external war to divert domestic focus. By that time, however, extensive civil uprisings in China might be possible, which could open the door for Taiwan to become a new country.
Paul Lin is a political commentator in Taiwan.
Translated by Ted Yang
The gutting of Voice of America (VOA) and Radio Free Asia (RFA) by US President Donald Trump’s administration poses a serious threat to the global voice of freedom, particularly for those living under authoritarian regimes such as China. The US — hailed as the model of liberal democracy — has the moral responsibility to uphold the values it champions. In undermining these institutions, the US risks diminishing its “soft power,” a pivotal pillar of its global influence. VOA Tibetan and RFA Tibetan played an enormous role in promoting the strong image of the US in and outside Tibet. On VOA Tibetan,
Sung Chien-liang (宋建樑), the leader of the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) efforts to recall Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Legislator Lee Kun-cheng (李坤城), caused a national outrage and drew diplomatic condemnation on Tuesday after he arrived at the New Taipei City District Prosecutors’ Office dressed in a Nazi uniform. Sung performed a Nazi salute and carried a copy of Adolf Hitler’s Mein Kampf as he arrived to be questioned over allegations of signature forgery in the recall petition. The KMT’s response to the incident has shown a striking lack of contrition and decency. Rather than apologizing and distancing itself from Sung’s actions,
US President Trump weighed into the state of America’s semiconductor manufacturing when he declared, “They [Taiwan] stole it from us. They took it from us, and I don’t blame them. I give them credit.” At a prior White House event President Trump hosted TSMC chairman C.C. Wei (魏哲家), head of the world’s largest and most advanced chip manufacturer, to announce a commitment to invest US$100 billion in America. The president then shifted his previously critical rhetoric on Taiwan and put off tariffs on its chips. Now we learn that the Trump Administration is conducting a “trade investigation” on semiconductors which
By now, most of Taiwan has heard Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an’s (蔣萬安) threats to initiate a vote of no confidence against the Cabinet. His rationale is that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)-led government’s investigation into alleged signature forgery in the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) recall campaign constitutes “political persecution.” I sincerely hope he goes through with it. The opposition currently holds a majority in the Legislative Yuan, so the initiation of a no-confidence motion and its passage should be entirely within reach. If Chiang truly believes that the government is overreaching, abusing its power and targeting political opponents — then
RSS