Many commentators believe they have already figured out who is going to win Taiwan's next presidential election.
Virtually every article that mentions the 2008 poll slips in something about the supposed inevitability that Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Ma Ying-jeou (
But this simple-minded assuredness that Ma's smile will win the day exposes a blissful naivete of the nature of Taiwanese politics and ignorance about what poll results from every election in the past six years have indicated.
Ma may have succeeded in trouncing his KMT rival in the chairmanship election last year and may have performed well in the Taipei mayoral elections. But none of this is indicative of how he will perform nationally.
A close examination of election results at every level since the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) came to power shows that, on a national level, support for the major parties is almost evenly split. The most recent election reinforced this data.
If -- as has happened in almost every race over the past few years -- people remain faithful to their party of choice regardless of whom that party's candidate is, then a Ma victory is far from assured.
The Ma phenomenon is a classic example of how analysts, commentators and journalists gravitate toward the simplest possible scenario and ignore the subtleties involved in more sophisticated analysis.
In that scenario, Ma is young and charismatic, has a "proven" record as a leader and holds impressive professional qualifications. He also has enviable name recognition, both locally and internationally. Ergo, to those who are unwilling -- or unable -- to delve beneath the surface, Ma is a sure bet for president in 2008.
But this scenario paints a very misleading picture of local politics. Ma is far from universally revered, even within the KMT. Many of the KMT elders -- and a surprising number of its younger members -- view Ma as a weak and indecisive leader. For example, he has come under fire from within his own ranks for not taking a more vigorous role in the campaign to oust the president.
What this signals to others within the KMT -- Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (
Very few KMT diehards will vote for anyone other than their party's chosen candidate, regardless of who that candidate is. But with such narrow margins in voter support between the pan-blue and pan-green parties, the key to the 2008 election may well hinge on a relatively small swing vote.
What this means in practical terms is that the race is still a toss-up, and anyone who tries to sell you a story otherwise is full of hot air.
There is no question that the DPP has a tough fight ahead of it in 2008. The poll is more than a year away, and in politics a year is a long time. The scandals that are currently plaguing the party will likely continue for many months to come, and that is something any DPP candidate will have to contend with.
What one hopes is that the narrow margins necessary for an electoral victory in 2008 will drive all of the nation's political parties to embrace a more centrist, less divisive type of politicking.
If that happens, the country will win in the long-term, no matter what the immediate result is.
To The Honorable Legislative Speaker Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜): We would like to extend our sincerest regards to you for representing Taiwan at the inauguration of US President Donald Trump on Monday. The Taiwanese-American community was delighted to see that Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan speaker not only received an invitation to attend the event, but successfully made the trip to the US. We sincerely hope that you took this rare opportunity to share Taiwan’s achievements in freedom, democracy and economic development with delegations from other countries. In recent years, Taiwan’s economic growth and world-leading technology industry have been a source of pride for Taiwanese-Americans.
Next week, the nation is to celebrate the Lunar New Year break. Unfortunately, cold winds are a-blowing, literally and figuratively. The Central Weather Administration has warned of an approaching cold air mass, while obstinate winds of chaos eddy around the Legislative Yuan. English theologian Thomas Fuller optimistically pointed out in 1650 that “it’s always darkest before the dawn.” We could paraphrase by saying the coldest days are just before the renewed hope of spring. However, one must temper any optimism about the damage being done in the legislature by the opposition Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), under
To our readers: Due to the Lunar New Year holiday, from Sunday, Jan. 26, through Sunday, Feb. 2, the Taipei Times will have a reduced format without our regular editorials and opinion pieces. From Tuesday to Saturday the paper will not be delivered to subscribers, but will be available for purchase at convenience stores. Subscribers will receive the editions they missed once normal distribution resumes on Sunday, Feb. 2. The paper returns to its usual format on Monday, Feb. 3, when our regular editorials and opinion pieces will also be resumed.
This year would mark the 30th anniversary of the establishment of the India Taipei Association (ITA) in Taipei and the Taipei Economic and Cultural Center (TECC) in New Delhi. From the vision of “Look East” in the 1990s, India’s policy has evolved into a resolute “Act East,” which complements Taiwan’s “New Southbound Policy.” In these three decades, India and Taiwan have forged a rare partnership — one rooted in shared democratic values, a commitment to openness and pluralism, and clear complementarities in trade and technology. The government of India has rolled out the red carpet for Taiwanese investors with attractive financial incentives
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