Fri, Dec 15, 2006 page8

• Elections reveals party weaknesses

  • By Fong Ruey-jay 馮瑞傑
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  Just as early polls predicted, Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) candidate Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) easily defeated Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) in the mayoral election last weekend in Taipei City.

  However, in Kaohsiung, KMT candidate Huang Chun-ying (黃俊英) lost a bitter defeat by the slimmest of margins, a mere 1,114 votes. Reports say that people are elated or depressed depending on their political leanings, and each camp has its own interpretation of the results. Now that all the initial excitement has subsided, there are several aspects of the election that we should take note of.

  To begin with, this election is most significant for entrenching Taiwan's two-party political landscape. People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) had hoped to extend his long, cantankerous political career by seizing the Taipei throne, however his scheme ultimately met with failure. Soong, once called the "Boris Yeltsin of Taiwan," was in the end unable to break through the constraints laid by the pan-green and pan-blue electoral dynamic to bring his "Yeltsin dream" to fruition.

  With Soong out of the game, the PFP now finds itself hurried along toward its ultimate demise as the two-party system is strengthened.

  Meanwhile, Hau has gone from strength to strength since leaving the New Party to return to the KMT, allowing him to demolish Hsieh and Soong, two politicians with strong administrative experience. The contrast in the results between the two pan-blue candidates discredits the idea that the candidates and their political stances were important in this election. The smaller parties may have had their day completely within the pan-blue and pan-green camps.

  And why should it be any different in Kaohsiung, one of the DPP's traditional strongholds? The Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) initially wanted to take advantage of the DPP corruption scandals to emerge from its role as second fiddle to the DPP and distinguish between the "real and fake localization parties."

  However, its performance in this election proves that it awaits the same fate as the other smaller parties. With former president Lee Teng-hui's (李登輝) political clout rapidly evaporating, one would imagine that the TSU will soon follow suit.

  In addition, the numbers illustrate that the KMT and DPP have maintained their respective support bases in the north and south. Right now, President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) has become a common issue for all DPP members, and green supporters have rationally chosen to adhere to the principle of party loyalty and have differentiated between their candidates from Chen.

  If this voting pattern becomes implanted and moderate voters migrate toward the extremes of the political spectrum, then I predict that KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) will not be able to cruise to victory in 2008 if he maintains his passive attitude.

  It's also important to compare the different strengths of the two parties in waging their campaigns. In the up-and-down Kaohsiung race, Huang, who polls had originally shown to be the leader, once more missed an opportunity to seize the coveted mayorship. The KMT took a conservative approach, choosing to lay back and avoid a fight rather than face its opponent head on. This low-key strategy eventually eroded the party's initial advantage.

  Just like the controversy over the assassination attempt on President Chen during the 2004 election, the effect of the alleged vote buying in this year's election in Kaohsiung was not as significant as it first seemed. The upset at the end of the 2004 election made everyone wonder whether the KMT had used its six years in opposition to prepare and transform itself into a party capable of winning votes -- so too with the mayoral election.

  Ma called the results of the poll a "draw," but the KMT should have won in Kaohsiung. Not only will this lack of drive force Taiwan to continue to bear an allegedly corrupt ruling party, but it must now face the bleak prospect of an ineffective opposition party as well. How can the nation endure such a situation?

  With the votes counted, the candidates' battle has drawn to a close. But for the Taiwanese, who bear the heavy responsibility of upholding Taiwan's democracy, the battle has only just begun. If we can make the rational decision to accept the election results, if we let the victors enjoy the sweet fruits of Taiwan's democracy and the losers make the courageous decision to try again another day, then Taiwan's democracy will emerge from the storm and move toward calmer waters.

  Fong Ruey-jay is a doctoral student in political science at the University of North Texas.

  Translated by Marc Langer
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