The results of the mayoral elections in Taipei and Kaohsiung last weekend have great implications for the future development of Taiwanese politics, the dynamics of party competition and the presidential election in 2008.
The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) dodged the political bullets of a series of alleged scandals surrounding President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) and the first family as well as some party members in the run-up to the mayoral elections.
The fact is that the DPP consolidated its hold on the mayoral seat in Kaohsiung, sustained its voter base in Taipei and suppressed an emerging split and power struggle within the party.
The so-called "four big shots" -- potential competitors for the next presidential nomination -- are now on equal footing with Frank Hsieh (
DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun is expected to stay in power and lead the party out of its recent political whirlpool. The need for the party to engage in introspection also constitutes Yu's greatest challenge.
Premier Su Tseng-chang's (
It is imperative for the DPP leadership to utilize the national yearning for reconciliation, rational political competition, rejuvenation of the economy and improvement in government efficiency in the remainder of Chen's term to convince voters that it can reinforce institutional reforms and forge clean politics.
In this regard, the bid for presidential nomination -- which is expected to start next spring -- should be driven by internal unity and national development, not by individual or factional interests.
While the public has placed greater emphasis on politicians' ethics more than their performance, the DPP still has the chance to reinvent its image and regain the public's confidence.
The opposition Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), under Chairman Ma Ying-jeou (
But instead, the polls cast a political shadow on Ma's overrated popularity and fragile leadership.
The so-called "Ma phenomenon" or "Ma miracle" was sidelined by his failure to forge internal reforms in the KMT and to push forward a healthy competitive relationship with the DPP government.
The KMT's failure to win back the Kaohsiung mayorship was a timely reminder to supporters of how looking to Ma to win back power in 2008 was in large measure wishful thinking. It also exposed its Achilles' heel -- a lack of leadership and agenda distinguishing itself from the DPP.
Given the Taiwan Solidarity Union and the People First Party are all facing possible implosion after the mayoral elections -- as witnessed by the latter's Chairman James Soong's (宋楚瑜) announcement that he would retire from politics, and the decreasing influence of former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) -- and that a new electoral system will be introduced in the next legislative election, a two-party dynamic will further consolidate. The room for an independent "third alliance" is small.
Therefore, the DPP and KMT are now free from the limits of their alliances and can engage in more rational and institutionally supportive competition. Both parties should recognize the fact that voters are tired of political gridlock and finger-pointing.
Whoever can react positively to this will win in 2008.
Liu Kuan-teh is a Taipei-based political commentator.
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) were born under the sign of Gemini. Geminis are known for their intelligence, creativity, adaptability and flexibility. It is unlikely, then, that the trade conflict between the US and China would escalate into a catastrophic collision. It is more probable that both sides would seek a way to de-escalate, paving the way for a Trump-Xi summit that allows the global economy some breathing room. Practically speaking, China and the US have vulnerabilities, and a prolonged trade war would be damaging for both. In the US, the electoral system means that public opinion
RSS