The North Korean nuclear test on Oct. 9 has caused another security crisis in northeast Asia. The threat has led to fresh changes in east Asia's geopolitical strategic alignment as well as regional security concerns for Taiwan.
With North Korea located only 2.5 hours from Taiwan by plane, the problems caused by its test provide further evidence of Taiwan's pressing need to pass its arms procurement package.
Even before North Korea conducted its nuclear experiment, its testing of long-range missiles in July made it impossible to discount that it might have the ability to produce missiles with nuclear warheads. Although there is no direct conflict between Taiwan and North Korea, it is still very possible that the North could fire missiles if circumstances are further aggravated or in the event of war.
If the missiles are of low quality, it is also possible that they could veer off course toward Taiwan. Taiwan doesn't have adequate missile defense capabilities nor systems to communicate with US or Japanese intelligence. Not only is it unprepared to defend itself from or give warning of a missile attack, but with the lack of intelligence, it might mistakenly react to an incoming missile as an attack from China and plunge the Taiwan Strait into a major crisis as well.
Even though former US president Bill Clinton took a conservative stance on missile defense, he still agreed to establish some limited missile defense capabilities. This was because it could help avoid crises escalating from misfired missiles and prevent rogue states from threatening the US with a small number of missiles. Under the principle of "mutually assured destruction," an attack from a few missiles loaded with weapons of mass destruction would call for a massive response with irreversible consequences.
Having some missile defense capabilities would not only improve Taiwan's strategic flexibility during a crisis, but would also earn it extra time to confirm intelligence and avoid the possibility of intensifying a crisis.
The international sanctions recently passed by the UN against North Korea include the right to conduct searches of vessels or aircraft to prevent missiles from being imported or exported.
Taiwan is located along shipping lanes important to North Korean ships traveling to Southeast Asia, and Kaohsiung harbor has been visited by ships traveling to or from North Korea. It's possible that North Korean ships will enter the Taiwan Strait to avoid being searched by US or Japanese patrols, perhaps even prompting Chinese involvement.
As the weapons procurement package includes a platform for linking with US and Japanese intelligence and provisions for some early warning capabilities, this would be very helpful in dealing with North Korean vessels. Without early access to intelligence, it's possible that a lack of timely communication could create problems in working with the US and Japan. This would introduce another uncertainty factor among the increasing number of variables in the Taiwan Strait.
We shouldn't underestimate the strategic threat that the North Korean nuclear crisis poses to Taiwan, nor the strategic opportunities it presents. If one considers the North Korean nuclear crisis from the perspective of Taiwan's overall national security and also tries to anticipate what the international community may need from Taiwan, the importance of passing the arms procurement package becomes all the more apparent.
The opposition parties that have worked together in the past to block the proposal should think carefully: they should allow a legislative review of the special arms procurement bill and see to it that it is passed as soon as possible.
Lai I-chung is the director of foreign policy studies at Taiwan Thinktank.
Translated by Marc Langer
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) were born under the sign of Gemini. Geminis are known for their intelligence, creativity, adaptability and flexibility. It is unlikely, then, that the trade conflict between the US and China would escalate into a catastrophic collision. It is more probable that both sides would seek a way to de-escalate, paving the way for a Trump-Xi summit that allows the global economy some breathing room. Practically speaking, China and the US have vulnerabilities, and a prolonged trade war would be damaging for both. In the US, the electoral system means that public opinion
RSS