Recent reports indicate that Premier Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) has said he is willing to meet with leaders from across the political spectrum to discuss ways to ease current political tensions.
Ministers without portfolio Lin Si-yao (林錫耀) and Lin Wan-i (林萬億) have met with Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) leaders for preliminary talks.
KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) has also said he is preparing to meet Su, so it seems that the green and blue leaders are gearing up for a new round of discussions.
Su is actually giving a generous political favor to Ma.
Ma has not benefited from the anti-President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) campaign to this point. The only force that could truly topple Chen is a recall by the legislature.
It doesn't matter how many people the street protest attracts, nor what kind of creative methods they use, because the campaign lacks the legal authority to bring Chen down.
Nor does the campaign help Ma's plans for the 2008 presidential election -- because Chen can't run for a third term.
If Chen isn't recalled, it will be a big boost to the pan-green camp's power and influence, while the anti-Chen campaign will prove to have been a fool's errand.
But if it turns out badly for Chen, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will still be seen to have acted courageously, and will find itself in a stronger position in 2008.
The anti-Chen campaign won't do Ma any good, regardless of its success or failure.
On the other hand, the turmoil, economic loss, traffic obstruction, green-camp galvanization and ethnic tensions that have been whipped up by the anti-Chen movement could be harmful for Ma.
The sit-in can't attract tens of thousands of protesters every day because people have to go to work and are reluctant to come out in poor weather. Its dwindling numbers have hindered the momentum of the anti-Chen movement, so, as far as Ma is concerned, resolving the conflict is the top priority.
If the DPP wants to reap any political benefit from this situation, the smartest approach would be to sit quietly and watch what happens. While the DPP waits patiently for the results of the investigation into Chen's alleged misbehavior, the pressure from the disorder and the responsibility for outbreaks of violence will fall on Ma's shoulders.
Ma has no choice but to allow the protests to continue, because the public's right to assemble and oppose political leaders is part of the foundation of a democratic society.
Su's actions help Ma get off the hook over a movement that he did not initiate. It helps Ma regain control. It also relieves him of the burden that the protests have placed on him, and will help his chances in the 2008 presidential campaign.
A third advantage is that in an atmosphere in which Ma is talking with the government, any DPP demands for a referendum on reclaiming the KMT's stolen assets and any attacks on Ma for allegedly abusing his mayoral allowance will likely fade, if not disappear altogether.
Bill Chang is a former deputy director of the Chinese Affairs Department of the Democratic Progressive Party.
Translated by Marc Langer
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) were born under the sign of Gemini. Geminis are known for their intelligence, creativity, adaptability and flexibility. It is unlikely, then, that the trade conflict between the US and China would escalate into a catastrophic collision. It is more probable that both sides would seek a way to de-escalate, paving the way for a Trump-Xi summit that allows the global economy some breathing room. Practically speaking, China and the US have vulnerabilities, and a prolonged trade war would be damaging for both. In the US, the electoral system means that public opinion
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
RSS