Fri, Sep 15, 2006 page8

• The real threat to Taiwan's security

  • By Tu Ho-ting 杜和庭
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  Following the government's proposed budget for procuring 66 F-16C/D fighter jets from the US last month, the question of national defense -- the victim of partisan squabbling over the past two years -- is once again the focus of public attention. But, sadly Taiwan's security situation is still gloomy and its implications are seriously underestimated.

  In order to show a willingness and determination to defend itself, the government allocated the budget to buy the F-16s before the US officially announced the deal. However opposition legislators objected to that. Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Legislator Lin Yu-fang (林郁方) questioned the legitimacy of the budget, saying it violated established practice.

  As we are all too aware, the US government declared a package of arms for Taiwan in 2001. The opposition parties, including the KMT and the People First Party (PFP), have vetoed this arms procurement bill 56 times in the legislature since June 8, 2004, despite the fact that the arms budget was reduced from NT$480 billion (US$14.6 billion) to NT$6.2 billion. No doubt, the latest objections are just further excuses to block the arms budget.

  In addition, when Defense News, a US weekly, revealed that the US has not agreed to the F-16 deal because the long-stalled arms procurement bill is still unresolved, KMT legislators adeptly brushed aside accusations directed at them. KMT Legislator Shuai Hua-min (帥化民) said, "As far as I know, the delay of the arms bill was just one of the reasons for the US to reconsider its arms sale. The president's intention to write a new constitution and change the name of the country were also of concern to the US."

  When we delve into Shuai's words, however, the truth is rather different. According to a report in the Taipei Times, (Aug. 31, 2006, p.3), a telegram sent to the National Defense Ministry from the US strongly blamed the Legislative Yuan for the long-delayed special arms procurement bill. One US senior official even warned that whether the arms procurement budget was passed in the Legislative Yuan or not in the next two months would not only demonstrate Taiwan's determination to defend itself, but be crucial to whether Taiwan-US relations would strengthen, stagnate or even go backward. After reading the message, Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) admitted that the delay in the passage of the arms bill would impact national security.

  No one would doubt the professionalism of the two opposition legislators -- the former a political scientist, the latter a retired lieutenant general -- and their patriotism. As China has approximately 800 ballistic missiles pointing at Taiwan and is adding missiles at an annual rate of 75 to 100, the opposition parties' obfuscation in the past six years is seriously eroding Taiwan's national security.

  In 2003, the government allocated NT$28.4 billion to buy four Kidd-class destroyers, part of the arms package which US President George W. Bush approved in 2001. The opposition used all kinds of tactics to obstruct the passage of the arms bill, and even falsely accused the government of intentionally floating the budget. As a result of opposition threats to boycott the procurement, the budget was reduced to NT$28 billion. Consequently, the number of SM-2 missiles deployed on the four destroyers was cut to half its original figure, which considerably undermines the warships' fighting capability, according to Taiwanese naval officials.

  Currently, there is a growing impression that Taiwan is neglecting its own defense, not only in the US government but also in think tanks and among academics. James Mulvenon, a prominent expert on Taiwan, bluntly comments that the reason Taiwan has been able to do this is its belief in a "blank check of military support from the United States." In other words, those who hold this view judge that Taiwan's current approach relies on potential US military intervention in any conflict with China, rather than bolstering its own capacity, to resist a Chinese attack.

  On the other hand, Ted Galen Carpenter, a researcher at the Cato Institute, in his book America's Coming War With China: A Collision Course Over Taiwan argues that the US should disengage from Taiwan, because China's patience regarding the incorporation of Taiwan into China is wearing thin and a growing number of Taiwanese want independence, both of which could lead to war between the US and China.

  Although Carpenter's view of the US-China war scenario and his prescription is not yet in the mainstream of Washington's foreign policy, this apocalyptic view practically reflects the core values of US foreign policy thinking that nothing is above national interests. That is to say, in order to safeguard national interests, it is possible that the US might be forced to abandon democratic Taiwan to totalitarian China, if it finds itself unable to compete militarily with Beijing.

  With the serious security challenges facing Taiwan and the US strongly critical of Taiwan's laxness regarding its own defense, it is surprising that KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou's (馬英九) claim that his party's repeated blocking of the arms bill is not only reasonable but is winning US respect for Taiwan's prudent attitude on the arms procurement issue. Furthermore, Ma solemnly argues that the KMT only supports "reasonable arms purchase," which means the purchased weapons should meet Taiwan's defense needs, its budget should not be a financial burden on the government, and all citizens support the arms purchase.

  Ironically, these plausible arguments could soon become empty words. According to the latest reports, under pressure from the US, Ma has implied that the KMT will dramatically change its position on the long-delayed arms procurement bill when the new legislative session begins this month. If this is the case, what the KMT did over the past two years would be proved to be a politically-motivated farce at the expense of Taiwan's security.

  The nation is at a security crossroads and further procrastination in arms procurement could threaten its very existence. Although it is still too early to say whether the arms bill will be passed or not, it will be the opposition's last chance to decide whether they want to improve Taiwan's defensive capabilities.

  Tu Ho-ting is a Taiwan-based journalist and analyst.
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