On the eve of Premier Su Tseng-chang's (蘇貞昌) departure for Chad, the African state declared that it was severing diplomatic relations with Taiwan. This was the second major diplomatic setback for Su, who was prevented from attending the presidential inauguration in Haiti in May for the same reason. This is the result of pressure from China, and merits further analysis.
First, there is the elimination of Taiwan's diplomatic room. China is blocking Taiwan's diplomatic efforts through a three-pronged policy. This aims at removing Taiwan's diplomatic allies, blocking Taiwan's participation in international politics by interfering in its relations with non-diplomatic allies and removing the country's leverage by blocking its participation in international organizations and destroying its geopolitical value.
China's main goal is to use this strategy to prevent Taiwan from obtaining foreign aid and support for independence. China's quick moves on the Chad question were part of its regular method of reducing Taiwan's international visibility, isolating it and confronting pro-independence sentiment.
Second is the attempt to obstruct Taiwan's oil strategy. Taiwan has used its diplomatic relationship with Chad to build an oil strategy aimed at preventing a domestic oil crisis that would lead to rising prices and threaten economic stability. Another goal of Taipei's strategy is to create benefits on several levels by expanding it to the diplomatic arena and thus expanding Taiwan's diplomatic room to maneuver. The severing of diplomatic relations between Taiwan and Chad is clear evidence that China is aware of Taiwan's intentions.
In recent years, China has been actively pursuing a strategy of diversifying its oil supply lines. To this end it has built strategic relationships with Russia and Kazakhstan. It will then work to set up energy cooperation guidelines and build oil pipelines directly to China to be able to guarantee a secure oil supply. This would complete the first stage of China's oil strategy. It is therefore not surprising that China would have Chad sever its diplomatic ties with Taiwan, and there is nothing Taiwan can do about it.
Third, there is the use of an "economic opium" strategy to force an opening up of Taiwan to China. Because of China's diplomatic pressure, Taiwan now has only 24 diplomatic allies. China has grasped that these countries maintain relations with Taiwan for economic reasons. It therefore often puts up large amounts of money to further harm Taiwan's diplomatic situation.
Although the government is adopting an "active management, effective opening" policy, the fact that it is restricted or cannot find good investment opportunities abroad means that it must deregulate the most fundamental aspects of Taiwan's economy and trade. These include innovative technologies, advanced management knowledge and practical experiences in the semiconductor industry, high value-added agricultural products, digital information, finance and insurance and the biomedical industries.
These are all key to China's becoming a major global market. Taiwan has already entered that market, but will it be able to extract itself from it?
The strengthening of China is the beginning of a weakening Taiwan. This is the goal of China's economic strategy, which aims to pull Taiwan closer before attacking its diplomatic relations and forcing it to dance to China's tune.
This is a dilemma for Taiwan, which must choose between opening up to China or isolation. With China taking immense pleasure from this, one can only wonder if cross-strait reconciliation will ever be possible.
Li Hua-chiu is a part-time researcher with the National Policy Foundation.
Translated by Perry Svensson
Concerns that the US might abandon Taiwan are often overstated. While US President Donald Trump’s handling of Ukraine raised unease in Taiwan, it is crucial to recognize that Taiwan is not Ukraine. Under Trump, the US views Ukraine largely as a European problem, whereas the Indo-Pacific region remains its primary geopolitical focus. Taipei holds immense strategic value for Washington and is unlikely to be treated as a bargaining chip in US-China relations. Trump’s vision of “making America great again” would be directly undermined by any move to abandon Taiwan. Despite the rhetoric of “America First,” the Trump administration understands the necessity of
US President Donald Trump’s challenge to domestic American economic-political priorities, and abroad to the global balance of power, are not a threat to the security of Taiwan. Trump’s success can go far to contain the real threat — the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) surge to hegemony — while offering expanded defensive opportunities for Taiwan. In a stunning affirmation of the CCP policy of “forceful reunification,” an obscene euphemism for the invasion of Taiwan and the destruction of its democracy, on March 13, 2024, the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) used Chinese social media platforms to show the first-time linkage of three new
If you had a vision of the future where China did not dominate the global car industry, you can kiss those dreams goodbye. That is because US President Donald Trump’s promised 25 percent tariff on auto imports takes an ax to the only bits of the emerging electric vehicle (EV) supply chain that are not already dominated by Beijing. The biggest losers when the levies take effect this week would be Japan and South Korea. They account for one-third of the cars imported into the US, and as much as two-thirds of those imported from outside North America. (Mexico and Canada, while
The military is conducting its annual Han Kuang exercises in phases. The minister of national defense recently said that this year’s scenarios would simulate defending the nation against possible actions the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) might take in an invasion of Taiwan, making the threat of a speculated Chinese invasion in 2027 a heated agenda item again. That year, also referred to as the “Davidson window,” is named after then-US Indo-Pacific Command Admiral Philip Davidson, who in 2021 warned that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) had instructed the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. Xi in 2017