Don't believe the hype.
Representative politics is inherently theatrical, and in Taiwan, sometimes this theatricality approaches a level of vaudeville that would not be out of place in an old English music hall, complete with a master of ceremonies and an orchestra in the pit.
Despite the denunciations, the threats, the demonstrations, the lawsuits, the scandals and the breathless media coverage, this is a remarkably composed society that frowns on excessive behavior.
But if you believe some media commentators, there is a phenomenon of "chaos" (luan,
Were the hysterics on TV screens reflected in the regular behavior of ordinary people, there might be real cause for concern. But this is not the case.
It should be noted that conflict between pan-blue and pan-green supporters almost always takes place in predictable contexts, and bona fide troublemakers are usually closely accompanied by a suitable number of police.
It is also critical to note that instances of ethnic conflict unrelated to political campaigns do not occur with anywhere near the degree of spontaneity and violence that plague other countries. Most people have their conspicuous ethnic markers, but most will not let these precipitate a conflict.
Taiwan's politicians and political pundits are very fond of hyperbole, which retains appeal in a sensationalist media environment. Yet just a few hundred kilometers south of Taiwan is a country with serious problems that make Taiwanese references to luan seem precious and self-absorbed. The Philippines, with its entrenched poverty, terrorism threat, Muslim insurgency, rights abuses and other problems makes use of the word "chaos" here seem ridiculous.
It remains a common argument that Han people harbor a terrible fear of luan, and this has been used to justify repression and atrocities to prevent luan breaking out all over. There may be millions of reasons why China -- or, more accurately, the Chinese Communist Party and its business partners -- would peddle this kind of self-fulfilling prophecy. But it is those who gain from this propaganda who have the most potential to impose luan on nearby innocents.
A Chinese embargo, missile attack or invasion is of course the genuine luan that people ought to fear, but people do not in their day-to-day activities perceive this to be a realistic threat -- for the time being. It is as if there is an understanding that the warning signs for a cross-strait conflict would be telegraphed so far in advance that most believe intervention by mediators -- domestic or international -- would have its effect long before any punitive action eventuated. Pragmatic to the last, Taiwanese seem to know where true chaos lies, and what must be done to avoid it.
So enough of the use of the word "chaotic" to describe Taiwanese society, and here's hoping that this place will not need to see a repeat of events of 60 years ago to be reminded of what true chaos is.
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) were born under the sign of Gemini. Geminis are known for their intelligence, creativity, adaptability and flexibility. It is unlikely, then, that the trade conflict between the US and China would escalate into a catastrophic collision. It is more probable that both sides would seek a way to de-escalate, paving the way for a Trump-Xi summit that allows the global economy some breathing room. Practically speaking, China and the US have vulnerabilities, and a prolonged trade war would be damaging for both. In the US, the electoral system means that public opinion
RSS