Fri, Jun 30, 2006 page8

• Editorial: The myth of a Taiwan in `chaos'

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  Don't believe the hype.

  Representative politics is inherently theatrical, and in Taiwan, sometimes this theatricality approaches a level of vaudeville that would not be out of place in an old English music hall, complete with a master of ceremonies and an orchestra in the pit.

  Despite the denunciations, the threats, the demonstrations, the lawsuits, the scandals and the breathless media coverage, this is a remarkably composed society that frowns on excessive behavior.

  But if you believe some media commentators, there is a phenomenon of "chaos" (luan, 亂) that threatens to engulf the nation. While the effective shuttering of the Control Yuan, the blocking of key bills in the legislature and the regressive behavior of dozens of legislators would suggest a situation increasingly out of control, it is anything but. What we are witnessing is a power struggle that has reached its point of balance -- an equilibrium of sorts -- which will continue in quite a noisy but stable fashion until the end of President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) term as pan-blue-camp leaders jockey for position. Unless, that is, around half of the present list of pan-blue camp lawmakers defy self-interest and vote themselves out of a job by forcing new legislative elections.

  Were the hysterics on TV screens reflected in the regular behavior of ordinary people, there might be real cause for concern. But this is not the case.

  It should be noted that conflict between pan-blue and pan-green supporters almost always takes place in predictable contexts, and bona fide troublemakers are usually closely accompanied by a suitable number of police.

  It is also critical to note that instances of ethnic conflict unrelated to political campaigns do not occur with anywhere near the degree of spontaneity and violence that plague other countries. Most people have their conspicuous ethnic markers, but most will not let these precipitate a conflict.

  Taiwan's politicians and political pundits are very fond of hyperbole, which retains appeal in a sensationalist media environment. Yet just a few hundred kilometers south of Taiwan is a country with serious problems that make Taiwanese references to luan seem precious and self-absorbed. The Philippines, with its entrenched poverty, terrorism threat, Muslim insurgency, rights abuses and other problems makes use of the word "chaos" here seem ridiculous.

  It remains a common argument that Han people harbor a terrible fear of luan, and this has been used to justify repression and atrocities to prevent luan breaking out all over. There may be millions of reasons why China -- or, more accurately, the Chinese Communist Party and its business partners -- would peddle this kind of self-fulfilling prophecy. But it is those who gain from this propaganda who have the most potential to impose luan on nearby innocents.

  A Chinese embargo, missile attack or invasion is of course the genuine luan that people ought to fear, but people do not in their day-to-day activities perceive this to be a realistic threat -- for the time being. It is as if there is an understanding that the warning signs for a cross-strait conflict would be telegraphed so far in advance that most believe intervention by mediators -- domestic or international -- would have its effect long before any punitive action eventuated. Pragmatic to the last, Taiwanese seem to know where true chaos lies, and what must be done to avoid it.

  So enough of the use of the word "chaotic" to describe Taiwanese society, and here's hoping that this place will not need to see a repeat of events of 60 years ago to be reminded of what true chaos is.
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