Taiwan's unprecedented presidential recall vote yesterday failed to achieve the majority required to pass. Although the motion came to naught, it should serve as a lesson and reminder for President Chen Shui-bian (
Meanwhile, the pan-blue camp is stubbornly clinging to its opposition to Chen. Although the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) seems to be veering toward a more moderate stance, it continues to mull over the next step in seeking Chen's ouster. The People First Party (PFP) -- as hardline as ever -- intends to dissolve the Cabinet or launch another recall motion. A second recall motion, however, is doomed to fail like the first. The pan-blue camp could still seek to topple the Cabinet, but doing so would be like opening a Pandora's box.
Under the Constitution, the pan-blue camp can initiate a no-confidence vote against the premier. However, they face a strategic obstacle in moving against the recently appointed Su Tseng-chang (
In the unlikely event that a no-confidence vote passes, the president will likely respond by dissolving the legislature. With the implementation of the new constitutional amendments for single-member districts, many incumbent lawmakers would therefore run the risk of finding themselves out of a job. Moreover, the redrawing of electoral boundaries must be completed six months prior to an election. As this process has not yet been completed, holding snap elections could spark a political crisis, undermining the rule of law.
The new "single district, two vote" electoral system will work to the advantage of big parties like the KMT. As for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), it is still reeling from recent setbacks. Meanwhile, the PFP and the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) are likely to shrink further.
If the pan-blues were to successfully topple the Cabinet, Chen would have to nominate a new premier. If he appoints a DPP or an independent political heavyweight, the opposition could launch another attempt to bring down the government, and another year would be devoured by political infighting. On the other hand, if Chen were to nominate a pan-blue candidate, this could deepen divisions within the pan-blue camp. These scenarios spell out only more conflict and confusion.
While a simple majority is required for a vote of no confidence against the Cabinet to succeed, this option presents many problems. The consequences may be hard to predict but it is a guaranteed recipe for disaster. Once this takes place, it will be difficult to apportion blame. But one thing is certain, it will be the people who will pay the ultimate price.
The recall bid has highlighted that Chen's performance has not been up to par. He has paid a heavy price, and the opposition should now show restraint and discipline as it has made its point. It is time to call for an end to hostilities if Taiwan is to escape from this political quagmire. Ma's decision not to entertain further discussions on toppling the Cabinet is a step in the right direction. It is more important, however, that he holds true to his promises rather than dancing to the tune of the hawkish faction within his party or the waning PFP.
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