President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) announcement to "cease" the National Unification Council and its guidelines highlighted the US' passiveness in promoting cross-strait dialogue. Since China passed its "Anti-Secession" Law and both former Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) chairman Lien Chan's (連戰) and People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong's (宋楚瑜) China visits, Beijing's Taiwan policy has been to isolate and marginalize Chen's government. In response, the US has repeatedly expresses its hope that China can talk to Taiwan's elected leader. Verbal statements of this sort will hardly bring China back to the negotiating table.
Looked at from Chen's perspective, if Beijing refuses to speak to him directly, any compromise or concession will only make his power base more fragile. No rational decision-maker would act in this way. As a result, the deadlock between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait is expected to remain unchanged, and tension may even increase.
Clearly, Washington is the only one that can push Beijing to consider the restart of talks with Taipei. However, although Washington regards itself to be a facilitator to cross-strait talks, if it only advises Beijing orally, the effectiveness has been proven limited. From now on, Washington will need to take proactive moves to push Beijing into a dialogue with Taipei.
Chen's announcement has also underlined the necessity for the US to review its balancing role on the cross-strait issue. Washington has always defined the "status quo" in the Strait as "no independence, no war" -- based on the principle that no one shall change the "status quo" unilaterally. But its concern over the "independence" part of the equation has far outweighed its concern for "no war."
While the US and China both show concern over the perceived "gradual" or "creeping" shift towards de jure Taiwan independence, Washington has ignored the process of Beijing's "gradual annexation" or seeking of de jure unification. In the face of the growing military imbalance in the Strait, China's attempts to contain Taiwan's diplomatic space and marginalize Taiwan in regional economic cooperation, the US has failed to declare its position or counter China's threat.
US tolerance will only allow China to go further, pushing Taiwan toward being united by China or even annexed. If Taiwan does not fight back, then the "status quo" is likely to drift toward a situation unfavorable to Taiwan.
Therefore, since Washington has only had a minimal response to Beijing's "no war" pronouncements, Taipei deserves the right to draw a red line between itself and Beijing. The premise for Chen's declaration of the "four noes and one without" -- that the Chinese regime has no intention to use military force against Taiwan -- is not just a matter of principle. It must be taken as an operational concept that restricts and deters China's hostile moves against Taiwan.
The cessation of the unification council and guidelines is Taiwan's declaration to the international society: We will never tolerate China's irrational threats. In short, in order to secure peace and safety in the Strait, in addition to righting the military balance, we need to pursue political deterrence.
Taiwan must also strive for the right to define and judge the "status quo," while making its bottom line clear and give itself an unassailable position.
The NUC incident was finally ended by "one cessation, with each side making its own interpretation." Through this action, Taiwan has won the right to interpret the "status quo" and to interpret what constitutes a change to the "status quo." This may well be a turning point.
Lo Chih-cheng is the executive director of the Institute for National Policy Research.
Translated by Eddy Chang
World leaders are preparing themselves for a second Donald Trump presidency. Some leaders know more or less where he stands: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy knows that a difficult negotiation process is about to be forced on his country, and the leaders of NATO countries would be well aware of being complacent about US military support with Trump in power. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would likely be feeling relief as the constraints placed on him by the US President Joe Biden administration would finally be released. However, for President William Lai (賴清德) the calculation is not simple. Trump has surrounded himself
US president-elect Donald Trump on Tuesday named US Representative Mike Waltz, a vocal supporter of arms sales to Taiwan who has called China an “existential threat,” as his national security advisor, and on Thursday named US Senator Marco Rubio, founding member of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China — a global, cross-party alliance to address the challenges that China poses to the rules-based order — as his secretary of state. Trump’s appointments, including US Representative Elise Stefanik as US ambassador to the UN, who has been a strong supporter of Taiwan in the US Congress, and Robert Lighthizer as US trade
Following the BRICS summit held in Kazan, Russia, last month, media outlets circulated familiar narratives about Russia and China’s plans to dethrone the US dollar and build a BRICS-led global order. Each summit brings renewed buzz about a BRICS cross-border payment system designed to replace the SWIFT payment system, allowing members to trade without using US dollars. Articles often highlight the appeal of this concept to BRICS members — bypassing sanctions, reducing US dollar dependence and escaping US influence. They say that, if widely adopted, the US dollar could lose its global currency status. However, none of these articles provide
On Friday last week, tens of thousands of young Chinese took part in a bike ride overnight from Henan Province’s Zhengzhou (鄭州) to the historical city of Kaifeng in search of breakfast. The night ride became a viral craze after four female university students in June chronicled their ride on social media from Zhengzhou in search of soup dumplings in Kaifeng. Propelled by the slogan “youth is priceless,” the number of nocturnal riders surged to about 100,000 on Friday last week. The main road connecting the two cities was crammed with cyclists as police tried to maintain order. That sparked
RSS