US politicians and military officers think that Taiwan exists solely for the benefit of -- or as a detriment to -- US-China relations. This blissfully egocentric attitude has been the source of much confusion in cross-strait relations, and could lead Washington to make a major miscalculation jeopardizing its strategic position in the Western Pacific.
The problem is that the US has demonstrated it has little understanding of the forces that drive domestic politics in Taiwan. Taiwan's relationship with China is merely one part of the equation for local politicians, and they do not score points by keeping their mouths shut about it.
Few legislators, if any, get elected based on pledging to "maintain the status quo." China just isn't an obsession for Taiwanese voters. But it is a polarizing issue that can at times be used to get people out in the streets.
So long as Washington's officials and think tanks try to analyze Taiwan through the lens of what best serves US interests, they are going to get it wrong. At a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on Tuesday, this mentality was on full display.
"I think that if that conflict were precipitated by just inappropriate and wrongful politics generated by the Taiwanese elected officials, I'm not entirely sure that this nation [the US] would come full force to their rescue if they created the problem," were the words of Senator John Warner, a Republican, on Tuesday. The senator was directing his comments specifically toward President Chen Shui-bian (
From the senator's perspective, Chen acted "inappropriately" because his decision complicated things for the US. Taiwan may owe a lot to the US, but this certainly doesn't mean that Washington can expect to dictate the decisions made by Taiwan's elected officials.
Imagine if Taiwan had complained about the US' post-Sept. 11 "war on terror" on the grounds that it undermined the US' ability to react to a crisis in East Asia. Imagine if a Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) legislator had told President George W. Bush that he had precipitated a conflict "by just inappropriate and wrongful politics" and that the US did not deserve the world's support because "they created the problem." Needless to say, this would not have made Taiwan a popular place in Washington.
Does Warner believe that politicians in Taiwan are somehow fundamentally different to their counterparts in the US?
Clearly Chen believes that he and his party stand to gain from getting tough with China, and the council decision was a part of this strategy. Surely this is not beyond the understanding of those in the US Senate.
Judging from the public statements of US officials, the entire council ordeal came as a complete surprise. Was there any excuse for this? Analysts, politicians and newspapers have been talking for weeks -- ever since Chen's New Year's address -- about the fact that the DPP was adopting a harder line toward China. It was only a matter of time before something like this happened.
Unfortunately for the large number of officials in the US who would rather Taiwan just keep its mouth shut and sit dutifully in the corner, every indication is that local politicians will continue to shake things up.
So since some in Washington appear to need to have the situation spelled out kindergarten-style, here it is: Until (at least) the presidential election in 2008, expect cross-strait relations to be a headache. There are going to be some bitter political battles fought here between the DPP and the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), and much of the fighting will be over issues that strike at the heart of Taiwan's relationship with China.
That will mean the US will have to be very proactive in dealing with Taiwan. Is it prepared to be so?
Concerns that the US might abandon Taiwan are often overstated. While US President Donald Trump’s handling of Ukraine raised unease in Taiwan, it is crucial to recognize that Taiwan is not Ukraine. Under Trump, the US views Ukraine largely as a European problem, whereas the Indo-Pacific region remains its primary geopolitical focus. Taipei holds immense strategic value for Washington and is unlikely to be treated as a bargaining chip in US-China relations. Trump’s vision of “making America great again” would be directly undermined by any move to abandon Taiwan. Despite the rhetoric of “America First,” the Trump administration understands the necessity of
US President Donald Trump’s challenge to domestic American economic-political priorities, and abroad to the global balance of power, are not a threat to the security of Taiwan. Trump’s success can go far to contain the real threat — the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) surge to hegemony — while offering expanded defensive opportunities for Taiwan. In a stunning affirmation of the CCP policy of “forceful reunification,” an obscene euphemism for the invasion of Taiwan and the destruction of its democracy, on March 13, 2024, the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) used Chinese social media platforms to show the first-time linkage of three new
If you had a vision of the future where China did not dominate the global car industry, you can kiss those dreams goodbye. That is because US President Donald Trump’s promised 25 percent tariff on auto imports takes an ax to the only bits of the emerging electric vehicle (EV) supply chain that are not already dominated by Beijing. The biggest losers when the levies take effect this week would be Japan and South Korea. They account for one-third of the cars imported into the US, and as much as two-thirds of those imported from outside North America. (Mexico and Canada, while
The military is conducting its annual Han Kuang exercises in phases. The minister of national defense recently said that this year’s scenarios would simulate defending the nation against possible actions the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) might take in an invasion of Taiwan, making the threat of a speculated Chinese invasion in 2027 a heated agenda item again. That year, also referred to as the “Davidson window,” is named after then-US Indo-Pacific Command Admiral Philip Davidson, who in 2021 warned that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) had instructed the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. Xi in 2017