Reality has finally made inroads into one small corner of the cross-strait relationship. The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) under Chairman Ma Ying-jeou (
Although even the KMT itself seems torn over whether or not it has changed its policy toward independence, one thing is clear: Ma has had to publicly walk away from his previous "eventual unification" remarks and embrace "maintaining the status quo" as his party's raison d'etre.
This is a development that should be welcomed by anyone with a stake in the future of Taiwan. Because what it shows is that the Chinese Communist Party's pipe dream -- that come 2008, the KMT would be swept back into power and unification would be assured -- is simply unrealistic.
Strangely enough, the KMT's slide away from unification is actually part of its strategy to regain power. It seems obvious enough that the ad taken out by the KMT -- and personally approved by Ma -- in a pro-independence newspaper was meant to assuage fears that the KMT was planning to give up the shop should it return to power.
This is a fear shared not just by "dark-green" independence activists, but also by "light-green" and "light-blue" moderates alike -- in other words, by the vast bulk of the Taiwanese electorate. Ma knows that his party can't return to power by appealing merely to the fringes of the pan-blue camp. Poll after poll has shown the Taiwanese to be ultimately pragmatic: They like things pretty much as they are, and grow wary when politicians talk about dramatically altering the cross-strait balance.
In this sense, Ma has shown himself to be a rather shrewd political operator -- far more so than his predecessor, or even the recent leadership of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Ma appears to sense that, by moving the discussion away from issues that polarize people, he can capitalize on the mistakes of the administration as well as on the frustration people now feel with politicians of all stripes because of their small-minded bickering.
Still, although the give-and-take between different KMT officials illustrates the growing acceptance among the pan-blues that Taiwan is better off when it keeps China at a distance, it also offers an opportunity for the pan-green camp.
Whereas a fossil like former KMT chairman Lien Chan (
Therefore, the best strategy for the DPP is to plug away at the "Ma waffle." After all, the recent ad controversy demonstrates quite clearly that the man equivocates so much that even the leadership of his own party doesn't know his views. So go after him. Make him commit on every issue that can be named. Even children know that those who try to please everyone only end up pissing off most people.
There is little use in the DPP continuing with its current strategy of "getting tough with China." This only alienates an important ally -- the US -- and plays into the hands of Ma, who will continue to claim the moral -- and electoral -- high ground by issuing a series of pleasant-sounding platitudes.
The way to deal with a patrician charmer like Ma is by playing rough. If the pan-greens have any ideology or spine left, and if they aren't as corrupt and inept as their critics allege, then they are going to have to prove it long before 2008.
The time to start is now.
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) were born under the sign of Gemini. Geminis are known for their intelligence, creativity, adaptability and flexibility. It is unlikely, then, that the trade conflict between the US and China would escalate into a catastrophic collision. It is more probable that both sides would seek a way to de-escalate, paving the way for a Trump-Xi summit that allows the global economy some breathing room. Practically speaking, China and the US have vulnerabilities, and a prolonged trade war would be damaging for both. In the US, the electoral system means that public opinion
RSS