The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is at a crossroads and Taiwan's freedom hangs in the balance.
The DPP's defeat in the Dec. 3 local elections was widely anticipated, yet the extent of the trouncing still came as a shock. Analysts have cited many reasons for the debacle: former presidential aide Chen Che-nan's (
Some observers have drawn the opposite conclusion: The DPP lost because it was seen as less capable than the opposition parties in dealing with China and was too slow in deregulating cross-strait exchanges. This view is common among pan-blue supporters and foreign observers who do not understand domestic political dynamics. There has in fact been a marked rise in the sense of Taiwanese identity in recent years and a great majority of Taiwanese would prefer to keep their de facto sovereignty and democracy.
How the DPP interprets the motivations of the electorate and how the party adjusts its China policy will no doubt affect the outcome of upcoming elections -- the Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral elections next year, the elections for the restructured Legislative Yuan in 2007 and the next presidential election in 2008.
Robyn Lim of Nanzan University in Japan recently said that China may be able to annex Taiwan soon after the March 2008 presidential election. This assumes that the DPP will not be able to recover quickly enough to defeat the presumed Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) contender -- Taipei Mayor and party Chairman Ma Ying-jeou (
Commenting on the elections' outcome on Dec. 15, President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) stated that his administration's insistence on Taiwanese identity, democracy and clean governance would not change. This is a good start.
Chen needs to emphasize further, as he did in an interview with Newsweek in early spring, that no dialogue on the future status of Taiwan may start before China becomes a genuine democracy and before it achieves a standard of living comparable to Taiwan. In other words, Chen needs to clearly enunciate a vision of a democratic and independent future for Taiwan in order to inspire a concerted effort toward that goal.
President Chen needs to make peace with former president Lee Teng-hui (
The government needs to educate pan-blue supporters on the consequences of Taiwan surrendering to China. The history of Chinese rule since 1949 and its calamitous impact on the average person should be widely disseminated. The leaders of the KMT and the People First Party may slip away to the US or elsewhere if Taiwan were ever to fall into the hands of the Chinese Communist Party, but the rank and file will not be so fortunate. Pan-blue supporters should seriously consider whether they really prefer the repression of the CCP to their own way of life. To be part of an expansionist China is ultimately to be on the front line of a potential war against the military alliance of the US, Japan and other democracies in Asia. Why should the Taiwanese people take sides with the forces of Leninism and autocracy?
The DPP government needs to send government officials and academics to the US to explain Taiwan's changed political landscape to US officials, academics, the Congress and the media. The pan-blues are in essence collaborating with Beijing to subvert Taiwan's democracy from within so that they may hand Taiwan over to the People's Liberation Army soon after the 2008 presidential election, which the KMT expects to win with Ma.
US policymakers should be made to ponder the consequences for Japan's security, the future of the US-Japan alliance and the political, economic and strategic interests of the US in East Asia and beyond. Similar representations should be made in Tokyo.
To regain the trust of the electorate and secure Taiwan's survival, the DPP government needs to undertake a drastic reversal in its China policy.
First, the second economic development consultative conference scheduled for next month should be canceled. The first conference resulted in the weakening of the economy, higher unemployment, outflow of capital, technology and skilled manpower to China, a dangerous dependence on China's economy and the creation of a class of business people with vested interests in unification.
Chen should instead convene a smaller symposium of "Taiwan First" economists and government officials to map out strategies promoting technical innovation and the fostering of new knowledge-based industries.
The policy of increasing Chinese tourists should also be canceled. China already has several thousand spies and special operations personnel working inside Taiwan. Opening up to more Chinese tourists will only increase this number. Taiwan's security agencies are already having a hard time identifying and keeping track of these agents. It is foolhardy to bring in more Trojan horses.
To do all of this, Chen will need to appoint a new premier whose "Taiwan First" credentials are impeccable and whose commitment to the nation's democratic future is beyond question. The new premier must have the ability to make Cabinet members work together to develop the economy and bolster the national security.
A premier from the pan-blue camp is out of the question. Ma's recent comments along these lines merely indicate his low opinion of the DPP leadership's intelligence.
To survive as a viable party and ensure Taiwan's continued independence, the DPP must return to its roots, rebuild its core base, and from there expand its support base by taking care of farmers and workers, implementing promised reforms, wiping out corruption and, above all, recommitting the party to the goal of a free and independent Republic of Taiwan through the exercise of the people's inalienable right to self-determination.
Li Thian-hok is a commentator based in Pennsylvania.
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