After his pet legislation to privatize Japan Post was defeated in the Upper House of the Diet on Aug. 8, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi took two decisive actions. He expelled 37 rebel lawmakers from his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) who had opposed the bill and called for a snap general election on Sept. 11. Observers at the time thought Koizumi was taking a grave, possibly suicidal, risk. Yet he won a stunning landslide victory.
The LDP won 296 seats in the 480-seat Lower House, up from the 249 seats before parliament was dissolved. The LDP's coalition partner, the New Komeito Party, won 31 seats. The LDP's coalition holds a total of 327 seats, more than the two-thirds majority required to override the Upper House.
The main opposition party, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) suffered a severe setback, winning only 113 seats, down from 177.
Koizumi skillfully focused the public debate on postal and other reforms as a symbol of doing away with old, status quo politics. The Japanese public is impatient with the decade-long economic stagnation and politics-as-usual.
By betting his political career on a vision of a resurgent Japan through reforms, Koizumi came through as a determined leader deserving of support, especially among the floating urban and young voters. Koizumi also showed his media savvy by fielding younger, telegenic and mostly female candidates against the expelled postal rebels. All 26 female candidates won.
The Japanese voters have given Koizumi a broad mandate to implement overhaul of the postal service, as well as the healthcare and Social Security systems. The latter reform is important due to Japan's changing demography.
The workforce is shrinking due in part to a low birthrate, while the population is rapidly aging. Next year, 20 percent of Japan's population will be over 60.
Japan's postal service does not just deliver mail. It also operates as the world's largest public bank and insurance company with combined deposits of US$3 trillion. The huge assets have long been used by some LDP leaders to finance pork barrel projects in their home districts. Some postmasters, whose jobs are often passed from father to son, have functioned as campaign aides.
Koizumi is now expected to rapidly push his postal privatization package through the Upper House, thus removing this source of patronage and corruption and reducing the bloated public sector. The economy can also benefit from better allocation of the US$3 trillion investment. Postal privatization will commence April 2007 and divestiture of the banking and insurance operations will be completed by 2017.
After some15 years of deflation and doldrums, the Japanese economy has slowly begun to recover, growing by 2 percent in both 2003 and last year. It's headed for similar expansion this year. Koizumi is credited with facilitating this turnaround by cleaning up bad bank loans. With the postal privatization and other reforms he may initiate during the rest of his term as prime minister, Koizumi is now embarking on a more substantial phase of Japan's structural reform.
The Japanese economy is the second largest in the world, nearly three times larger than China's economy. A growing Japanese economy can serve as one of the engines of global prosperity. For the rest of the world, Koizumi's victory is a welcome development.
In terms of Japan's domestic politics, Koizumi's landslide victory could have a liberalizing effect. Japan's money politics is dominated by special interest groups such as large corporations and farmers. Urban consumers' interests are often neglected. This recent election showed that the votes (perhaps a third of the total) of the younger generation and city dwellers could swing the election results. Appealing women candidates featured prominently in this election.
Skillful management of media coverage was important in winning the election. Hopefully this experience will lead to more open and transparent politics with more debate on issues, and with the interests of all segments of society being represented more equitably. If these changes can take hold, then Japan's democracy will enter a new phase of greater maturity.
In terms of Japan's foreign policy, Koizumi's broad mandate has three implications. One, bolstering the Japan-US alliance. Among Japan's policy establishment there is a school of thought which asserts that Japan should maintain equal distance between the US and China. The opposition DPJ leans towards this school. The DPJ advocates withdrawal of Japanese troops from Iraq and demands that US Marines leave the island of Okinawa.
Koizumi, in contrast, believes Japan's security depends on a close alliance with the US. That is why he has taken pains to cultivate a warm personal friendship with US President George W. Bush. This policy will continue, as evidenced by Japan's commitment to spend US$10 billion in funding the joint anti-missile defense research and development program over the next ten years.
Then there is the issue of a greater role in international security. Article 9 of Japan's constitution says Japan will refrain from the use of force to settle international disputes. It allows for the self-defense of Japan's homeland but prohibits collective defense. After the Sept. 11 terror attacks on the US, however, the Diet passed two laws which interpreted Article 9 in such a way so as to permit Japan to provide logistical support to US forces in the Afghanistan war and to send non-combat troops to Iraq. These are temporary laws effective only for two years and need to be extended.
Given the strong support garnered by Koizumi, some observers believe he now has a mandate to amend Article 9 so that Japan will be able to participate in international security and peacekeeping operations without having to enact special, temporary laws. The Self-Defense Force can also be formally recognized as Japan's military force ? another step in Japan's reversion to a normal country.
After the DPJ's resounding defeat, its leader Katsuya Okada has resigned. The bruised party has recently elected as its new leader a young conservative who wants a more assertive role for the Japanese military. Seiji Maehara, 43, was chosen over the dovish veteran Naoto Kan, 58, in a 96-94 vote.
In February, the foreign and defense ministers of Japan and the US met in Washington. In the joint statement issued after this two plus two conference, Japan for the first time stated that peaceful settlement of the dispute between Taiwan and China was a mutual strategic concern of Japan and the US. Abe Shinzo, formerly secretary-general of the LDP, was in Washington at that time. At a press conference, he clarified Japan's position. What the joint statement meant was that Japan would not stand aside and watch, if China were to attack Taiwan. Abe is considered a strong candidate to succeed Koizumi.
Japan is likely to show greater resolve in standing up to China. As China's economic and military power grows, it is adopting an increasingly aggressive stance toward Japan. Last November, a Chinese nuclear submarine was tracked in Japanese waters near Okinawa. This was just one instance of several intrusions in recent years. Then there is the potentially explosive tussle over large natural gas reserves beneath the East China Sea. China and Japan disagree over where to draw the maritime dividing line between them. Tokyo has asked Beijing to temporarily suspend its gas exploration projects and share seismic data and other information. Japan maintains that the Chinese gas field rigs, which lie just on China's side of the median line which Tokyo claims divides the two nations' exclusive economic zones (EE), are tapping into a field that stretches into Japanese territory.
Tokyo recently granted Teikoku Oil Co. the rights to test drill on Japan's side of the line, which Beijing does not recognize. China claims its EEZ extends almost to Okinawa to the edge of the continental shelf, encompassing Taiwan.
On Sept. 9, two days before the general election in Japan, China deployed a fleet of five warships near the Chunxiao gas field. Although the fleet's mission was not clear, the timing was suspicious. If the intent was to intimidate the Japanese electorate into voting against Koizumi then the move was counterproductive.
With the strong backing of the Japanese public, Tokyo will most likely abandon its timid diplomacy of the past, and start to search for a place in the global community where Japan will play security, political, and diplomatic roles commensurate with its economic and technological power. Koizumi claims his victory has created a new LDP.
It remains to be seen whether the resurgence of the LDP will eventually lead to the resurgence of Japan.
Li Thian-hok is a freelance commentator based in Pennsylvania.
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