President Chen Shui-bian (
Interestingly, in a discussion regarding the US' hope that Chinese President Hu Jintao (
So, Chen is clear then that an ideal is one thing and reality is another, and that cross-strait relations are going nowhere in a hurry.
Lien's visit to China and meeting with Hu resulted in a joint communique, issued on April 29. One of the main clauses in that communique mentioned that the two parties would set up a platform for regular meetings between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the KMT. The clause also states that the first meeting will be held in Taipei before Lien steps down as chairman next month. A delegation of top KMT leaders and legislators is currently in Beijing to discuss the details of the meeting.
Chen -- who, full of wishful thinking, has been offering Beijing many goodwill gestures -- is finally waking up and is tasting the bitter fruit of his efforts. But it is surprising to see that the opposition leaders still cannot see the error of their ways. They remain full of hope that the CCP-KMT show will help improve their political prestige.
But it is just as Chen has pointed out. After Lien's, Soong's and New Party Chairman Yok Mu-ming's (郁慕明) visits to China, they are full of ideas for peaceful cross-strait development, but this simply does not meet the test of the current reality. Beijing continues to isolate Taiwan within the international community, and even in the few months since the opposition leaders visited China, it has not made the slightest concession in continuing to pursue this policy.
Because of China's pressure, Chen will not be able to attend the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of the year. The US Congress on July 20 even passed a proposal to allow high-ranking Taiwanese officials to visit the US, and called on the US government to engage in direct talks with Taiwan's elected officials. This has also been met with violent opposition from the Chinese.
China continues to treat Taiwan as the enemy and, in pursuing its cross-strait policy, has sought every means to destroy it. Given this situation, any talks in Taipei between the KMT and the CCP are not likely to yield any result beyond a mass of propaganda applauding their achievements.
We hope that the KMT will realize its naivety in trying to "bargain with a tiger for its skin." As Chen pointed out at the videoconference, if China's "peaceful rising" is not accompanied by "discovering peace" and "developing democracy," then it is unlikely to ever have a government that loves peace.
Meanwhile, the "platform for communication" that the KMT thinks it has established with the CCP will simply become a stage on which China can perform, striving to divide Taiwan. It will certainly not forward the cause of cross-strait peace. How is it that the KMT cannot see something that is so blatantly obvious?
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) were born under the sign of Gemini. Geminis are known for their intelligence, creativity, adaptability and flexibility. It is unlikely, then, that the trade conflict between the US and China would escalate into a catastrophic collision. It is more probable that both sides would seek a way to de-escalate, paving the way for a Trump-Xi summit that allows the global economy some breathing room. Practically speaking, China and the US have vulnerabilities, and a prolonged trade war would be damaging for both. In the US, the electoral system means that public opinion
RSS