An election win by Taiwan's ruling party has taken pressure off independence-minded President Chen Shui-bian (
Chen's Democratic Progressive Party won 42.5 percent of the vote in National Assembly elections on Saturday, comfortably beating the Chinese Nationalist Party's (KMT) 38.9 percent.
Before the poll, Chen had been under growing pressure to kowtow to China, which dangled economic rewards in front of Taiwan's 23 million people after meetings with more conciliatory opposition leaders including KMT Chairman Lien Chan (
But China's strategy of divide and conquer apparently did not help the KMT in this election, though analysts noted the record-low turnout of 23 percent made the vote a poor barometer for public opinion.
"I think this outcome will give him a bit more maneuvring space in seeking rapprochement with Beijing," said Chu Yun-han (
Despite the political stalemate, trade is booming across the Taiwan Strait and opinion polls show the majority of people want better access to China's vast market.
That's why Chinese President Hu Jintao's (
"The election gave President Chen a new lease within his party," said Emile Sheng (
Chen is also still under pressure from the US to prevent tensions from flaring in one of Asia's most dangerous flashpoints.
Some analysts say Chen's shift to a more centrist position this year -- evident in the cautious approval he first gave to opposition visits to China -- indicates he seeks a legacy before his term ends in 2008 as the man who brokered peace with China.
Saturday's poll, however, showed how dependent the DPP's power base is on votes from hardline advocates of Taiwan independence, analysts say.
Bad weather and confusion over what the election was about meant only the true believers came out to cast ballots.
Shen Fu-hsiung (沈富雄), a DPP National Assembly member, told a post-election seminar that 25 percent of the DPP's votes had come from hardliners, making them a powerful lobby against any move by Chen to formulate a softer policy towards China.
"Although he cannot achieve de jure independence, he will insist that de facto sovereignty is his bottom line. Therefore I think the chance of him meeting Hu Jintao is nil," Shen said.
A legacy of Taiwan's complicated political system, the National Assembly was elected to ratify constitutional amendments passed by the Legislative Yuan last year.
As both the DPP and KMT support the changes, the reforms to halve the legislature and revamp the electoral system are almost sure to pass, redrawing Taiwan's political landscape in favor of two-party politics.
With the pro-independence lobby pulling Chen to the left, but Washington and the need to broaden the DPP's support base pulling him more towards the middle, analysts say it is still unclear in what direction the president will ultimately head.
Liao Da-chi (
"Chen's China policy will always be a zig zag and not a straight line," Liao said. "He'll waver between appeasing the DPP hardliners and the moderate voters who want better economic ties with China."
Concerns that the US might abandon Taiwan are often overstated. While US President Donald Trump’s handling of Ukraine raised unease in Taiwan, it is crucial to recognize that Taiwan is not Ukraine. Under Trump, the US views Ukraine largely as a European problem, whereas the Indo-Pacific region remains its primary geopolitical focus. Taipei holds immense strategic value for Washington and is unlikely to be treated as a bargaining chip in US-China relations. Trump’s vision of “making America great again” would be directly undermined by any move to abandon Taiwan. Despite the rhetoric of “America First,” the Trump administration understands the necessity of
US President Donald Trump’s challenge to domestic American economic-political priorities, and abroad to the global balance of power, are not a threat to the security of Taiwan. Trump’s success can go far to contain the real threat — the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) surge to hegemony — while offering expanded defensive opportunities for Taiwan. In a stunning affirmation of the CCP policy of “forceful reunification,” an obscene euphemism for the invasion of Taiwan and the destruction of its democracy, on March 13, 2024, the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) used Chinese social media platforms to show the first-time linkage of three new
If you had a vision of the future where China did not dominate the global car industry, you can kiss those dreams goodbye. That is because US President Donald Trump’s promised 25 percent tariff on auto imports takes an ax to the only bits of the emerging electric vehicle (EV) supply chain that are not already dominated by Beijing. The biggest losers when the levies take effect this week would be Japan and South Korea. They account for one-third of the cars imported into the US, and as much as two-thirds of those imported from outside North America. (Mexico and Canada, while
The military is conducting its annual Han Kuang exercises in phases. The minister of national defense recently said that this year’s scenarios would simulate defending the nation against possible actions the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) might take in an invasion of Taiwan, making the threat of a speculated Chinese invasion in 2027 a heated agenda item again. That year, also referred to as the “Davidson window,” is named after then-US Indo-Pacific Command Admiral Philip Davidson, who in 2021 warned that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) had instructed the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. Xi in 2017