One of the greatest contradictions in Washington's policy toward Taiwan is that it has interfered in elections consistently to the benefit of the pan-blue camp, despite its strategic interests lying unequivocally with the pan-green camp. US President George W. Bush's condemnation of Chen Shui-bian (
It appears that Washington strategists decided that its criticism came too early, so in December they waited until the last minute to play their spoiler. This time, State Department spokesman Adam Ereli condemned Chen's plans to change the name of Taiwan's offices abroad, a proposal which had been a highlight of the last week of Chen's election campaign.
On this occasion Washington was more successful: The pan-greens failed to win a predicted majority of seats in the legislature. Given that the principal concern of the Bush administration is, and has been for some time, that Taiwan pass the NT$480 billion (US$15.13 billion) special arms budget, which the pan-blue camp has resolutely opposed, Washington clearly scored a spectacular own goal.
There is little glee in finger-pointing. The concern now is to undo the damage that has been done to the interests of both Taiwan and the US. But how?
Purely domestic solutions have been tried and so far have failed. The so-called agreement between Chen and People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong (
It had been hoped that the sheer outrageousness of Beijing's "Anti-Secession" Law last month would shame the pan-blue camp into giving the arms budget the nod. Instead, they have refused to let the budget bill advance to the committee stage in the legislature on three occasions.
Meanwhile, the KMT continues to court Beijing. KMT Chairman Lien Chan (
As usual, some in the US have been blaming Chen for not "pushing" the issue far enough. This is plainly ridiculous: Putting the budget to the legislature three times in one month can hardly be called dilatory. The truth is that the government has done all it can and is at the point of recognizing that there can be no movement on this issue while Lien remains KMT chairman, which means no movement until August at the earliest.
Domestic solutions have failed. It is now up to Washington to exert pressure from afar. As to how this can be done, let us remind our American friends that the interests of the pan-blue leaders and legislators in the US are extensive, and comings and goings across the Pacific frequent. The obvious solution is to deny entry to the US to those who would frustrate US policy -- until they see the error of their ways. A refused visa here, a refused entry there -- it can be subtle yet pointed, and it will definitely hurt. And in a post-Sept. 11 security climate, no explanation need be given.
The arms budget has to pass. It's time to apply the thumbscrews.
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