Prior to World War II, Adolf Hitler and Nazi Germany declared that Austrians and Germans were of the same race and spoke the same language, and the inclusion of Austria in the Third Reich was therefore a holy mission. In an attempt to oppose Germany's blatant ambition to invade Austria, a referendum was planned for March 1938 to let Austrians decide their own future through peaceful and democratic means. On the eve of the referendum, Germany invaded and then annexed Austria.
Shortly thereafter, Hitler declared that the people in the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia were descendants of the German people and that the region should be returned to Germany. Because Great Britain and France feared a military conflict with Germany, then-British prime minister Neville Chamberlain and French prime minister Edouard Daladier signed a treaty with Hitler in September 1938, agreeing to the German annexation of the Sudetenland. Czechoslovakia, which was not invited to the treaty meeting, was forced to accept the deal by London and Paris, who said they would not intervene should the issue lead to war between Germany and Czechoslovakia.
On his return from Munich, Chamberlain said he had engineered an exchange that would give Europe a generation of peace. Hitler, however, promptly occupied all of Czechoslovakia. In 1939, he used the excuse that Gdansk was German territory to invade Poland. Two days later the UK and France declared war on Germany and World War II began in Europe.
Looking back at that time, the Nazis were encouraged not only by German nationalism, but the naive appeasement of both Britain and France. Even Russia signed a non-aggression treaty with Germany right before the Germans invaded Poland. As a result, Hitler feared nothing.
China's claims to sovereignty over Tibet, Xinjiang, the Tiaoyutai and even Taiwan -- and the rhetoric Beijing uses -- is shockingly similar to Nazi Germany and its claims on its neighbors.
Beijing has passed a law -- the "Anti-Secession" Law -- to authorize war and legitimize future military expansion. The law is clearly aimed at Taiwan. In the past few years, Chinese nationalists have repeatedly asked, "Where should the sea port for China's warships be -- in the Taiwan Strait or the Pacific Ocean?" The question is where will China stop? Will it also lay claim to Singapore and Penang as overseas territories of China on the grounds that Chinese people have historically resided there?
Moreover, the attitude of Europe's current leaders toward the autocratic Chinese regime is astonishingly similar to those of Chamberlain and Daladier when dealing with Hitler. French and German political leaders should learn from history when dealing with the cross-strait issue and the lifting of the EU arms embargo on China in order to avoid a repeat of the tragic Munich Pact.
Although Taiwan is a long way from Europe, its passionate pursuit for democracy and freedom is not any different from that of the EU's member states. When it comes to the cross-strait issue, the EU leaders' callous disregard for a democratic nation in Asia is tragic. We can only hope it does not lead to a greater tragedy.
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) were born under the sign of Gemini. Geminis are known for their intelligence, creativity, adaptability and flexibility. It is unlikely, then, that the trade conflict between the US and China would escalate into a catastrophic collision. It is more probable that both sides would seek a way to de-escalate, paving the way for a Trump-Xi summit that allows the global economy some breathing room. Practically speaking, China and the US have vulnerabilities, and a prolonged trade war would be damaging for both. In the US, the electoral system means that public opinion
RSS