Infamous for its impotence and self-importance, China's National People's Congress (NPC) seems to exist in an imperial haze. Ignoring protests from the rest of the world, it will do as it is told and pass the "anti-secession" law treating Taiwan as part of China's territory and the Taiwanese people as a mob to be intimidated or killed if need be. But Beijing has yet to learn the lesson from the failure of verbal attacks and military threats in the past.
The reasoning behind the bill mentions "non-peaceful" means to resolve the Taiwan question -- a frightening phrase that points to an intensifying threat to invade as well as the use of any number of other obnoxious strategies.
But the most unacceptable part of the proposed law is this: The right of interpretation rests solely with the Chinese government. This means that Chinese officials are both the players and the referee in this ugly political game, increasing insecurity both in military terms and in terms more relevant to Taiwanese businesspeople in China.
In 1997, Beijing promised the international community that the Basic Law in Hong Kong would be unchanged for 50 years. But since the right to interpret the law lies with the NPC, the Hong Kong courts' power was effectively stolen away, causing growing public distrust in the judicial system.
China also promised that Hong Kong would be ruled by Hong Kong people, but it is now clear that it will be ruled by Beijing's puppets -- and barely competent puppets at that. The people of Hong Kong have neither the right to elect their chief executive in direct elections nor the right to elect the Legislative Council as a whole. Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa (
The Hong Kong people still live the lives of a colonized people, without any of the respect or pride that was supposed to come with the return to China. The 500,000-strong demonstration against national security legislation in July 2003 was a reflection of the public's lack of trust in Beijing's promises.
The "anti-secession" law is to a large extent modeled on the US Taiwan Relations Act. One of the goals is to rely on unilateral legislation and domestic laws to define the relationship between China and Taiwan in order to intimidate the Taiwanese public, so that they will ape their more compliant "compatriots" in Hong Kong and Macau. At the same time, Beijing is trying to challenge Washington and test its resolve.
If Washington does nothing and other countries refrain from strong reaction to Chinese aggression, then China may escalate its threats of military action to frighten Taiwan away from adopting any domestic reforms and create the impression that Taiwan is already in the bag.
A recent commentary in the Wall Street Journal pointed out that China's rhetoric is similar to North Korea's. North Korean provocations against Asian neighbors have caused no end of problems for the US and Japan.
Unless the world wants a smarter and more self-righteous version of North Korea creating havoc in the region, the international community needs to start saying "no" to China.
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) were born under the sign of Gemini. Geminis are known for their intelligence, creativity, adaptability and flexibility. It is unlikely, then, that the trade conflict between the US and China would escalate into a catastrophic collision. It is more probable that both sides would seek a way to de-escalate, paving the way for a Trump-Xi summit that allows the global economy some breathing room. Practically speaking, China and the US have vulnerabilities, and a prolonged trade war would be damaging for both. In the US, the electoral system means that public opinion