While Chinese people enjoyed the Lunar New Year holidays, the Japanese government announced that it would take over management of a lighthouse built by Japanese right-wing youth groups in the Tiaoyutai (
Japan's announcement that it will take over ownership of the lighthouse is aimed at acquiring oil-resource development rights for the continental shelf in the East China Sea.
Meanwhile, in Taiwan, the Ilan County Government in February last year completed a legally required registration process which assigned the Tiaoyutais as a part of the administrative district of Ilan County's Toucheng township. In 2003, Executive Yuan officials also pointed out that Taiwan and Japan had reached a consensus to "put aside" differences over the Tiaoyutais so they could jointly develop deep-sea fisheries in the area.
Although Taiwan and Japan have no official diplomatic relations, they have a strategic partnership. Taiwan does not want to undermine this partnership because of controversies over who has sovereignty over the Tiaoyutais. Therefore, the foreign ministry's response to Japan's announcement was low-key, saying only that Taiwan hoped that after negotiations between the two countries are held, the Japanese would have a more reasonable attitude.
China, on the other hand, made a clear protest against the move, not least because it wants to protect its interest in the Chunxiao oilfields, where it aims to start production this year. For China, the Tiaoyutai islands are not simply important as a symbol of sovereignty and national dignity, but are also closely tied to its aim to ensure energy supplies in the East China Sea and strategic advantage in the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
But as far as the mapping of administrative regions is concerned, the Tiaoyutai islands do not fall under Zhejiang Province, nor are they part of Fujian. China's only recourse in claiming its rights to the island cluster is to say that they belong to Taiwan, and that they are therefore part of the "sacred territories of China." Therefore, in making a fuss over the Tiaoyutai islands, China can kill two birds with one stone: protect its oil interests in the East China Sea and reinforce its claims to "possess" sovereignty over Taiwan.
This move therefore comes as no surprise.
Will the Tiaoyutai controversy escalate military tensions between China, Japan and Taiwan? At present, Japan has only announced that it will manage the lighthouse. As long as the Japanese do not take things any further, then it is likely that the three contending parties will confine this battle to the legal front. But Japan would only need to station troops or colonists on the islands to light the fuse. The combined influences of strategic advantage, racial antipathy and oil politics would then fuel the fire and likely lead to a considerable escalation of tensions -- and even small scale conflict -- making the Tiaoyutais a tinderbox that could destroy the peace in East Asia.
The current Tiaoyutai controversy involves complex issues of historical sovereignty between China, Taiwan and Japan, as well as access to oil in the East China Sea and each country's defenses. It is therefore not something that can be partially resolved through unilateral pronouncements or actions by the parties involved. If China, Japan and Taiwan speak or act without consulting each other, this could have unpredictable results. We would rather the three parties put their differences aside for the moment, and instead of pursuing a zero-sum result, seek a means of jointly developing the area's natural gas and maritime resources to achieve a win-win situation. Only in this way can a multifaceted response to the issue be found that will guarantee regional security and prosperity.
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) were born under the sign of Gemini. Geminis are known for their intelligence, creativity, adaptability and flexibility. It is unlikely, then, that the trade conflict between the US and China would escalate into a catastrophic collision. It is more probable that both sides would seek a way to de-escalate, paving the way for a Trump-Xi summit that allows the global economy some breathing room. Practically speaking, China and the US have vulnerabilities, and a prolonged trade war would be damaging for both. In the US, the electoral system means that public opinion