Recent events indicate how much the people of Taiwan long for an improved cross-strait relationship against a backdrop of prolonged military threats from China and international isolation. The slightest gesture of warmth or lessening of hostility on the part of Beijing is enough to incite wishful thinking among some people in Taiwan, which makes these people highly susceptible to Chinese unification propaganda.
The first recent event that gave false hope to people in Taiwan is the fact that the governments on the two sides of the Taiwan Strait have finally reached an agreement to make possible non-stop charter flights for the Lunar New Year holiday period. Although Beijing has repeatedly made it clear that this year's charter flights are an isolated incident, many still wholeheartedly believe that it was the beginning of a new-found friendship between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. They turned a blind eye to the fact that Taiwan had actually taken grave national security risks to make the flights possible. It is truly worrisome that some groups within Taiwan will use this as a stepping stone to push for permanent cross-strait links, without thinking twice about what kind of price the people of Taiwan would have to pay.
The second event that brought hope to the naive is the arrival on Tuesday of a delegation from China to pay their respects to the late top negotiator Koo Chen-fu (
During their brief stay, they refrained from making any official statements on the future of cross-strait relations and avoided meeting government officials, except for a brief meeting and handshake with SEF Chairman and Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Vice Chairman Johnnason Liu (
Despite this window-dressing gesture of good will, Beijing has not slowed its pace even slightly in getting its anti-secession law enacted. In fact, the Chinese National People's Congress will finish enactment of this law by the end of March. The intended target of the law is obviously none other than Taiwan. Few can overlook the fact that the anti-secession law will give Beijing a legal basis to move against Taiwan in the event of any action Beijing interprets as an act of "Taiwan independence." The hostility and implications of the anti-secession law is so strong and unsettling that the US has openly voiced concerns on more than one occasion.
This could explain why Beijing agreed to the Lunar New Year charter flights and dispatched Sun and Li to Taiwan. However, the tokenism of these two small gestures amounts to virtually nothing in the face of the enormous hostility behind the anti-secession law. This is not to mention the fact that, throughout the process, Beijing did not forget to continue increasing the number of missiles targeting Taiwan. The president recently announced that the number of missiles had grown to 706. Under the circumstances, one cannot help but wonder how anyone in Taiwan can believe that Beijing is sincere about improving its relationship with Taiwan.
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
During the “426 rally” organized by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party under the slogan “fight green communism, resist dictatorship,” leaders from the two opposition parties framed it as a battle against an allegedly authoritarian administration led by President William Lai (賴清德). While criticism of the government can be a healthy expression of a vibrant, pluralistic society, and protests are quite common in Taiwan, the discourse of the 426 rally nonetheless betrayed troubling signs of collective amnesia. Specifically, the KMT, which imposed 38 years of martial law in Taiwan from 1949 to 1987, has never fully faced its
RSS