Fri, Sep 05, 2003 page8

• Editorial: Streamlining no guarantee of peace

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  Recent news reports said both China and Taiwan are streamlining their armed forces. Former Chinese president Jiang Zemin (江澤民), the chairman of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Military Commission, said the People's Liberation Army (PLA) will be downsized by 200,000 people over the next two years. Minister of National Defense Tang Yao-ming (湯曜明) has also announced that Taiwan's armed forced will be reduced by 85,000 over the next 10 years. Despite the downsizing on both sides, the tense atmosphere persists and there is no sign of peace.

  Both sides want to streamline their armed forces, but that does not necessarily represent a peaceful attitude. The main targets of China's downsizing plan include navy and air force personnel charged with art and entertainment, sports and hygiene work. The plan will reduce military expenditure, but it will not affect combat power. The PLA will still have 1.8 million troops after the downsizing, compared to the 300,000 troops Taipei plans to retain after its cutback. China's defense budget for next year is US$23 billion, but this is an underestimation. Its real defense spending could be as high as US$65 billion -- a far cry from Taiwan's less-than-US$8 billion budget for next year.

  Apart from its greatly superior size, the PLA is also rapidly increasing its weapons and equipment. Tai-wan still enjoys a qualitative edge, but both Taiwan-ese and US military experts are worried that the military balance across the Taiwan Strait may tilt by 2005. In light of this, President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) has announced that Taiwan will spend several hundred billion NT dollars over the next few years on the purchase of submarines, Patriot PAC-3 missiles and anti-submarine weapons in order to upgrade the country's defense capabilities. However, both the budget and the purchase procedure remain unclear.

  A tilted military balance across the Strait may help boost China's intent to launch a military attack against Taiwan. Jiang also said modern warfare has moved from mechanized to information warfare. China has deployed more than 450 ballistic missiles along its southeast coast, and the number continues to rise by 75 per year. According to the Ministry of National Defense's estimates, Taiwan has the capacity to weather 96 ballistic missile attacks. China has long surpassed that number. In other words, China's missile deployments are not merely meant for Taiwan -- they are also causing anxiety in southeast Asian countries.

  Both US and Taiwanese military experts predict that, in the event of a military attack, the PLA will use asymmetrical tactics and use a variety of electronic means to paralyze Taiwan's weapons, communications and computer equipment. Missiles will be used in concert to destroy ground facilities. Such tactics can be executed without using large numbers of troops. China's military streamlining therefore has nothing to do with peace in the Taiwan Strait. Neither Taiwan nor the rest of world should harbor any illusion about this.

  A resolution of cross-strait tensions will have to be built on dialogue. Chen has recently announced a three-phase plan for direct transportation links across the Strait, but the problem is that Beijing still harbors hostility towards Taiwan and continues to insist on the "one China" principle as a precondition for any talks. If Beijing can remove this hurdle, this will open the way for pragmatic negotiations on direct links. China also needs to renounce the use of force and sign a cross-strait truce. This will be the only true manifestation of peace in the Strait, which will bring happiness to people on both sides and also contribute to world peace.
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