I had the honor to take part in the massive street demonstration on March 26. As someone who is from the People's Republic of China, I stood by my friends in Taiwan's media to send our message to the whole world, protesting against China's passing of the "Anti-Secession" Law. The protesters who flooded into Taipei from across the country clearly showed Taiwan's mainstream opinion.
Beijing originally placed its hope on those pan-blue camp supporters. Never did it expect that the Taiwanese people's reaction to the law would be so strong. It misjudged Taiwan's mainstream opinion again, thereby putting itself at a disadvantage. To avoid humiliation in the face of the massive demonstration, Chinese authorities have employed a dual tactic to influence the expression of Taiwan's public opinion.
On March 25, the Hong Kong-based China News Agency quoted insiders as saying that those drafting and brought in to advise on the law agreed that Article 9, which states that "the state shall do its utmost to protect the lives, property and other legitimate rights and interests of Taiwan civilians and foreign nationals in Taiwan, and to minimize losses," implies a rejection of the use of nuclear weapons by the People's Liberation Army. The report also claimed that Chinese authorities and the military had already reached a consensus on this.
Those who initiate a war always do their best to protect the lives and property of civilians unless they are maniacs. But it is another story when they have no choice. Thus, if China really has to stage a war to save face, is there any action at which it will baulk? In 1989, China killed many civilians during the Tiananmen Square massacre, so why would Taiwan be any different? Are nuclear weapons not included in the so-called "non-peaceful means and other necessary measures" stated in Article 8? In that case, why can't Beijing change it to "non-peaceful means and other necessary measures other than nuclear weapons?"
Besides using deceitful tactics, the Chinese authorities have also used threats. Academics attending the seminar of the China-based Research Center of Cross-Strait Relations held on March 24 lambasted the "March 26 Demonstration for Democracy and Peace," alleging that it was organized by pro-independence forces to tarnish and criticize China's new law.
The acadamics regarded the rallyas provocative behavior and urged Taiwanese people not to join the demonstration. All four deputy directors of the Taiwan Affairs Office showed up at the seminar, a demonstration of China's determination in the face of the protests.
The Anti-Secession Law, tailor-made by Chinese President Hu Jintao (
The media and international human-rights groups in the US, Japan, the UK, Germany, Canada, Australia and other countries also criticized the legislation. The condemnation has surprised China. We can say that this is the greatest failure in China's diplomacy in recent years.
And Hu's troubles are far from over. Last month, when both the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and the National People's Congress were held, the Beijing authorities coerced Hong Kong chief executive Tung Chee-hwa (董建華) to resign by citing health worries, since Beijing thought that most Hong Kongers would support such a move. Donald Tseng (曾蔭權), is expected to be the sole candidate in the restricted election in July. Unexpectedly, Hong Kong's Basic Law lacks clear stipulations regarding the term of an interim leader. This has led to fierce disputes and shown once again that the Basic Law is open to interpretation by Beijing.
Although Tseng was appointed as Tung's deputy, many pro-China critics regard him as a product of colonialism. They have, therefore, cooperated with some Hong Kong-based business tycoons to find another candidate for the July election in order to block Tseng from becoming a spokesman for some other business consortium. The fact that Hong Kong's political world is now tangled up in bickering is an indication that Hu's authority in the territory is being challenged. The pro-democracy force's "protesting against China; disturbing Hong Kong" and the pro-Beijing force's "supporting China; disturbing Hong Kong" is something that the authorities in Beijing did not expect.
We want to see how Hu will deal with these difficulties. It appears that his drive to collect a million-name petition to prevent Japan from becoming a permanent member of the UN has ignited nationalist sentiment to distract the Chinese people's attention from affairs in Taiwan and China. This could provide some temporary relief.
After 13 years in a subservient position, Hu brooked no delay in wielding his power, but he has allowed things to get totally out of hand. Would the Chinese leadership, which has carried over from the time of former president Jiang Zemin (江澤民), sit by and watch Hu's mistakes without making any response? Although high-ranking officials put on a facade of unity, we can't rule out the possible emergence of a new power struggle in the Chinese Communist Party, as well as possible changes in policies of the Chinese government.
Paul Lin is a political commentator based in New York.
Translated by Eddy Chang and Lin Ya-ti
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
During the “426 rally” organized by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party under the slogan “fight green communism, resist dictatorship,” leaders from the two opposition parties framed it as a battle against an allegedly authoritarian administration led by President William Lai (賴清德). While criticism of the government can be a healthy expression of a vibrant, pluralistic society, and protests are quite common in Taiwan, the discourse of the 426 rally nonetheless betrayed troubling signs of collective amnesia. Specifically, the KMT, which imposed 38 years of martial law in Taiwan from 1949 to 1987, has never fully faced its
RSS