Beijing's toughening line on Taiwan gives ammunition to the US in its bid to stop the EU lifting its arms embargo on China, analysts said Monday.
China's National People's Congress earlier adopted an "anti-secession" law which gives its military a "legal" basis to attack Taiwan if the country moves towards independence.
Washington described the move as "unfortunate," while the French foreign ministry said that EU countries were consulting about how to react.
"The Americans will take this opportunity to recall their opposition to a lifting of the EU arms embargo on China," said Adam Ward of the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London.
In December, the 25 EU heads of government restated their intention of lifting the ban, which was put in place after the crackdown on the democracy movement in the 1989 Tiananmen Massacre.
Last month US President George W. Bush used his European tour to put on record his opposition to a lifting of the embargo -- a position shared by the US Congress.
"China's move will give arguments to the United States which can now say -- look, there is another reason not to lift the embargo. There is a new proof that China is a threat to Taiwan," said Jean-Vincent Brisset of the Paris-based Institute for International and Strategic Relations.
"The US thinks lifting the embargo would be a blunder on many levels -- because of the human rights situation which still exists in China and in terms of the political signals it would send to Beijing on Taiwan," Ward said.
"There is a unique degree of unanimity in the US on this. They believe the risk of a conflict in the Taiwan Straits is not negligible," he added.
The Europeans see an end to the embargo as a chance to penetrate new parts of the Chinese market and to boost their sales of non-military goods, according to Brisset.
"The Europeans have their eye on the great Chinese market. As for the Chinese, they say: as long as you do not sell us arms, we will not buy your Airbus," Brisset said.
"But the Europeans do not realize what they are doing. Because the Chinese buy very little. They buy samples and manufacture their own counterfeits," he said.
For Yiyi Lu of the British research center Chatham House, "The Americans will of course bring the Chinese vote up at their discussions with the Europeans. They will say it is a new threat."
But the vote "will change little" because it was not a surprise, she said. Brisset agreed.
"This is nothing really new," he said, pointing out that the Chinese Communist party has repeatedly threatened to use force against democratic Taiwan.
The return of US president-elect Donald Trump to the White House has injected a new wave of anxiety across the Taiwan Strait. For Taiwan, an island whose very survival depends on the delicate and strategic support from the US, Trump’s election victory raises a cascade of questions and fears about what lies ahead. His approach to international relations — grounded in transactional and unpredictable policies — poses unique risks to Taiwan’s stability, economic prosperity and geopolitical standing. Trump’s first term left a complicated legacy in the region. On the one hand, his administration ramped up arms sales to Taiwan and sanctioned
The Taiwanese have proven to be resilient in the face of disasters and they have resisted continuing attempts to subordinate Taiwan to the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Nonetheless, the Taiwanese can and should do more to become even more resilient and to be better prepared for resistance should the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) try to annex Taiwan. President William Lai (賴清德) argues that the Taiwanese should determine their own fate. This position continues the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) tradition of opposing the CCP’s annexation of Taiwan. Lai challenges the CCP’s narrative by stating that Taiwan is not subordinate to the
US president-elect Donald Trump is to return to the White House in January, but his second term would surely be different from the first. His Cabinet would not include former US secretary of state Mike Pompeo and former US national security adviser John Bolton, both outspoken supporters of Taiwan. Trump is expected to implement a transactionalist approach to Taiwan, including measures such as demanding that Taiwan pay a high “protection fee” or requiring that Taiwan’s military spending amount to at least 10 percent of its GDP. However, if the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) invades Taiwan, it is doubtful that Trump would dispatch
World leaders are preparing themselves for a second Donald Trump presidency. Some leaders know more or less where he stands: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy knows that a difficult negotiation process is about to be forced on his country, and the leaders of NATO countries would be well aware of being complacent about US military support with Trump in power. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would likely be feeling relief as the constraints placed on him by the US President Joe Biden administration would finally be released. However, for President William Lai (賴清德) the calculation is not simple. Trump has surrounded himself