The Chinese State Council's white paper on national defense, entitled China's National Defense in 2004, presents an unprecedented rise in threatening and provocative language, while at the same time condemning the US for selling arms to Taiwan. Meanwhile, Beijing continues to gradually expand its military in a display of strength -- proof that little has changed in the communist regime's warlike nature, which is a relic of the Cold War era.
China's military budget has seen double-digit growth over the past 10 years. Its total military expenditure is exceeded only by the US and Russia. Such military expansion has not only endangered the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait, but also poses a serious threat to the Asia-Pacific region.
Beijing claims that its defense policy is, well, defensive. But what Taiwan sees is the deployment of over 600 ballistic missiles, as well as around 730 fighter jets within striking range of Taiwan. China has also expanded deployment of missiles capable of attacking Japan, South Korea and many US military bases in Asia. Such comprehensive deployment is far from a "defensive" policy, and in the light of such obfuscation it can only be said that Beijing is not only trying to establish a hegemony in Asia, but is doing so with little opposition from other world powers.
After the Cultural Revolution finished wreaking havoc in China in the 1960s and 1970s, Asia and the rest of the world were delighted to see that this ancient country might be capable of rising from an ill-fated past. The economy began to really boom in 1990, when China maintained annual growth of more than 8 percent. However, with a population of nearly 1.3 billion, the country's average annual income remains a meager few hundred US dollars, which means that China can only consider itself a developing country. According to figures compiled by civil-rights activists, China still has hundreds of millions of people subsisting on very little income, and masses of unemployed and homeless people can be found in cities all over China.
The suffering of the Chinese people is profound, even as the government spends a large portion of the money generated from economic growth on developing and purchasing advanced weapons. What China's leadership craves is to become a hegemonic power in Asia. Under present circumstances, this is hardly consistent with the slogan "serve the people" which Beijing likes to throw around.
Taiwan's government and opposition should take careful note of the hardening of language China is using. When "peacefully promoting unification," this year's white paper calls for "preventing the forces of Taiwan independence from splitting the country." Taiwan is being forced into a corner by China's pressure, and the public must be determined to resist Beijing's threats of violence.
Taiwanese should not fear China's opposition, as stated in its white paper, to Taiwan independence, nor should they be intimidated by China's opposition to Taiwan's arms purchases or Taiwan's cooperation with other nations in military matters.
But at the same time, the international community cannot be allowed to ignore the terrible results that China's arms buildup may deliver. For if a conflict like this eventuates, its effects are likely to be felt throughout Asia and in every modern economy around the world.
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) were born under the sign of Gemini. Geminis are known for their intelligence, creativity, adaptability and flexibility. It is unlikely, then, that the trade conflict between the US and China would escalate into a catastrophic collision. It is more probable that both sides would seek a way to de-escalate, paving the way for a Trump-Xi summit that allows the global economy some breathing room. Practically speaking, China and the US have vulnerabilities, and a prolonged trade war would be damaging for both. In the US, the electoral system means that public opinion