The EU's fifteen-year-old arms embargo against China will remain in place -- for now. Yet there's little cause for celebration, since all signs indicate that it's only a matter of time before the embargo is lifted. Right now, observers estimate it will happen in the spring of next year. However, the EU will be making a grave mistake if and when it does lift the ban. According to EU spokeswoman Francoise le Bail, "concern" about "civil rights, freedom of expression" and other human rights in China was the reason for the decision made during a two-day summit held between leaders of the Chinese and EU governments this week.
It's hard to imagine that human rights conditions in China will improve significantly in the future. After all, Beijing has had 15 years to improve things, but no serious efforts have been made. Human Rights Watch said it best in a statement released before the summit, in opposition to lifting the ban: "China's army turned its guns on its own people. If the ban is lifted, the next attack could be with weapons supplied by EU states." That is real food for thought, though EU governments are eager and desperate to export their advanced weapons to Beijing.
Proponents of lifting the embargo, including France and Germany, argue that things have changed over the past 15 years since Beijing's bloody crackdown on pro-democracy student protestors in Tiananmen Square. They are certainly right ? not only has Beijing failed to show any repentance for the crackdown and continued to abuse basic human rights, but they have gone on to become an even greater threat to regional peace. Fifteen years ago, China began developing economically, and today it is both backed by enormous wealth accumulated from rapid economic growth and propelled by its endless ambition. It has become a rapidly rising military power that poses a serious challenge even to the US, the world's superpower.
China's neighbors, of course, have a deeper appreciation of the threat posed by their powerful neighbor. Take Japan: Only this past Tuesday, the Japanese government lodged protests through formal diplomatic channels after confirming that a Chinese ship was conducting research off Japan's southernmost island Okinotorishima, and asked China to cease all unannounced geographical research in Tokyo's exclusive economic zone. Less than a month before, the Japanese protested a brief incursion by a Chinese submarine in Japanese waters.
Then there is of course Taiwan. Surely, no country in the world knows better what it is like to live with China's military threats, day after day. China's threat against Taiwan is so real that it was the reason the US opposed lifting the EU ban. According to Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue (
As the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its People’s Liberation Army (PLA) reach the point of confidence that they can start and win a war to destroy the democratic culture on Taiwan, any future decision to do so may likely be directly affected by the CCP’s ability to promote wars on the Korean Peninsula, in Europe, or, as most recently, on the Indian subcontinent. It stands to reason that the Trump Administration’s success early on May 10 to convince India and Pakistan to deescalate their four-day conventional military conflict, assessed to be close to a nuclear weapons exchange, also served to
After India’s punitive precision strikes targeting what New Delhi called nine terrorist sites inside Pakistan, reactions poured in from governments around the world. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) issued a statement on May 10, opposing terrorism and expressing concern about the growing tensions between India and Pakistan. The statement noticeably expressed support for the Indian government’s right to maintain its national security and act against terrorists. The ministry said that it “works closely with democratic partners worldwide in staunch opposition to international terrorism” and expressed “firm support for all legitimate and necessary actions taken by the government of India
The recent aerial clash between Pakistan and India offers a glimpse of how China is narrowing the gap in military airpower with the US. It is a warning not just for Washington, but for Taipei, too. Claims from both sides remain contested, but a broader picture is emerging among experts who track China’s air force and fighter jet development: Beijing’s defense systems are growing increasingly credible. Pakistan said its deployment of Chinese-manufactured J-10C fighters downed multiple Indian aircraft, although New Delhi denies this. There are caveats: Even if Islamabad’s claims are accurate, Beijing’s equipment does not offer a direct comparison
To recalibrate its Cold War alliances, the US adopted its “one China policy,” a diplomatic compromise meant to engage with China and end the Vietnam War, but which left Taiwan in a state of permanent limbo. Half a century later, the costs of that policy are mounting. Taiwan remains a democratic, technologically advanced nation of 23 million people, yet it is denied membership in international organizations and stripped of diplomatic recognition. Meanwhile, the PRC has weaponized the “one China” narrative to claim sovereignty over Taiwan, label the Taiwan Strait as its “internal waters” and threaten international shipping routes that carry more
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