Successful films often fuel sequels, giving audiences the opportunity to perpetuate the satisfying illusion created in the original. In Taiwan, the presidential election and its aftermath became a real-life thriller -- but the captive public has been unable to walk out on it ever since. The tension associated with this Saturday's sequel, not unlike Speed 2: Cruise Control, is a creation that has been forced on the public, with most only wanting an end to disruption and a return to normality. As part of the new script, Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Lien Chan (
According to Article Two and Article Three of the Additional Articles of the Constitution, the premier is appointed by the president and does not require the approval of the legislature. Although the premier is responsible to the legislature, his position as a presidential appointee is in no way related to who holds a majority in the legislature. These articles were added to the Constitution to allow Lien to serve as vice president and premier concurrently under former president Lee Teng-hui (
Although the presidential appointment of the premier is not affected by who has a legislative majority, the premier's ability to maintain his position is. Lien's suggestion that the pan-blue camp will be able to form government if it wins a majority can therefore take place, but only as a result of vicious political fighting. The scenario would be as follows: The president appoints a premier from a minority party. The administration of the premier is boycotted by the majority party, which passes a vote of no confidence, forcing the president to dissolve the legislature and call for new elections. The opposition keeps its majority, forcing the president to bow to political realities and appoint a candidate that they can accept.
Although the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the presidential elections in 2000 and this year, the opposition has maintained a majority in the legislature and has constrained the government on many fronts. So far, the opposition has retained a sense of proportion, and while opposing most legislation and budget measures, has not engaged in a "scorched earth" policy of initiating a vote of no confidence, which would precipitate a political crisis. Lien's announcement makes it clear that the opposition will raise the level of its resistance if it wins a majority this time, going so far as to challenge the right of the president to appoint the premier. This will be a political battle with incalculably high political and social costs that could wear on indefinitely.
If Taiwan were a normal democratic country, the actions of political parties taken in accordance with the Constitution and their relative levels of strength would be considered acceptable. But Taiwan faces threats and obstruction from China on all fronts, and it cannot sustain another period in which it fails to advance, or slips backward, because of domestic political factors. The political scene cannot afford to become an endless series of Friday the 13th sequels, with the public serving as teen fodder for a deranged and slowly decomposing villain.
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) were born under the sign of Gemini. Geminis are known for their intelligence, creativity, adaptability and flexibility. It is unlikely, then, that the trade conflict between the US and China would escalate into a catastrophic collision. It is more probable that both sides would seek a way to de-escalate, paving the way for a Trump-Xi summit that allows the global economy some breathing room. Practically speaking, China and the US have vulnerabilities, and a prolonged trade war would be damaging for both. In the US, the electoral system means that public opinion
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