The flags of the Republic of China (ROC) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) have been flying together in Vanuatu for 26 days now. Vanuatu's maintenance of a diplomatic relationship with both Taipei and Beijing is unprecedented in international diplomacy. Whether this model of dual recognition can be maintained depends on the state of cross-strait tensions.
Vanuatu's Prime Minister Serge Vohor told Taiwan's officials at an informal meeting that he looks forward to maintaining dual recognition of both China and Taiwan. It will be worth noting whether Beijing will tacitly accept the situation or actively oppose it. The key to establishing the "Vanuatu model" was Vohor's declaration that Vanuatu respects the "one China policy," while it also has the right to pursue "one Taiwan policy." He said that Vanuatu is a sovereign and independent country which has the freedom to decide which countries it recognizes. Further, the Vanuatu government and its people have a consensus: recognizing both China and Taiwan and receiving economic aid from both parties best serves its welfare and economic development.
In international business, acknowledging both sides of the Taiwan Strait is the international norm. Most countries have relations with Taiwan. They establish their embassies in Beijing and their economic and trade offices in Taipei. Why isn't this international business model adapted for international politics? The situation resembles that of Israel and Palestine. Many countries don't recognize Palestine, but other countries recognize both Israel and Palestine and use their influence to help maintain the peace. The same goes for pre-unified East and West Germany, and North and South Korea. These are models of co-existence between split countries, with both sides hostile to each other.
When the ROC withdrew from the UN, the US hoped both the ROC and PRC would be members. This hope was dashed by former president Chiang Kai-shek (
Taiwan established diplomatic relations with Vanuatu. Since Nov. 3 flags of both the PRC and the ROC have been flying there. This creates new prospects for Taiwan's diplomatic expansion. It remains to be seen if China, too, is looking at the situation in a different way. Vanuatu's dual recognition is a testing ground to see if Taipei and Beijing can put aside a zero-sum war of attrition, arrive at new ways of thinking, and achieve a win-win situation. A successful "Vanuatu model" would contribute enormously toward reducing cross-strait tensions and ensuring peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region.
Concerns that the US might abandon Taiwan are often overstated. While US President Donald Trump’s handling of Ukraine raised unease in Taiwan, it is crucial to recognize that Taiwan is not Ukraine. Under Trump, the US views Ukraine largely as a European problem, whereas the Indo-Pacific region remains its primary geopolitical focus. Taipei holds immense strategic value for Washington and is unlikely to be treated as a bargaining chip in US-China relations. Trump’s vision of “making America great again” would be directly undermined by any move to abandon Taiwan. Despite the rhetoric of “America First,” the Trump administration understands the necessity of
In an article published on this page on Tuesday, Kaohsiung-based journalist Julien Oeuillet wrote that “legions of people worldwide would care if a disaster occurred in South Korea or Japan, but the same people would not bat an eyelid if Taiwan disappeared.” That is quite a statement. We are constantly reading about the importance of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), hailed in Taiwan as the nation’s “silicon shield” protecting it from hostile foreign forces such as the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and so crucial to the global supply chain for semiconductors that its loss would cost the global economy US$1
US President Donald Trump’s challenge to domestic American economic-political priorities, and abroad to the global balance of power, are not a threat to the security of Taiwan. Trump’s success can go far to contain the real threat — the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) surge to hegemony — while offering expanded defensive opportunities for Taiwan. In a stunning affirmation of the CCP policy of “forceful reunification,” an obscene euphemism for the invasion of Taiwan and the destruction of its democracy, on March 13, 2024, the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) used Chinese social media platforms to show the first-time linkage of three new
The military is conducting its annual Han Kuang exercises in phases. The minister of national defense recently said that this year’s scenarios would simulate defending the nation against possible actions the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) might take in an invasion of Taiwan, making the threat of a speculated Chinese invasion in 2027 a heated agenda item again. That year, also referred to as the “Davidson window,” is named after then-US Indo-Pacific Command Admiral Philip Davidson, who in 2021 warned that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) had instructed the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. Xi in 2017