At the June 1992 Rio de Janeiro Summit in Brazil, a total of 154 countries signed the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The convention officially took effect in March 1994 with an aim of stabilizing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
We hope that by 2100 we will be able to restrict carbon dioxide levels to about 550 parts per million by volume in the atmosphere, which is twice the concentration as before the Industrial Revolution. In 1997, the third meeting of the convention signatories passed the Kyoto Protocol, which is legally binding, in order to regulate the responsibility of 38 industrialized nations and the EU to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
The Kyoto Protocol regulates the emission of six greenhouse gases. Of these gases, carbon dioxide is the most important for the greenhouse effect, accounting for 70 to 80 percent of emissions. Most of these emissions are the result of human energy consumption, such as the burning of fossil fuels, including coal, oil and natural gas.
Taiwan is not a signatory to the Kyoto Protocol. It ranks 22nd in the world as far as carbon dioxide emissions are concerned, and statistics from the Ministry of Economy's Bureau of Energy show that total emissions last year amounted to 255.98 million tonnes, or an average of 11.1 tonnes per person. Taiwan's average annual GDP growth between 1990 to last year was 5.3 percent, while average annual growth of carbon dioxide emissions was 6.3 percent. This is evidence that Taiwan's industrial structure leans toward high greenhouse gas emissions and inefficient energy use.
The Kyoto Protocol has had a substantive impact on global trade interaction. Since pressure to cut down on greenhouse gas emissions means that it is no longer simply an environmental issue, the protocol will have a serious effect on the future of industrial development in Taiwan, leading to intensified industrial competition and putting Taiwan in a bad light in the eyes of the world.
The raising of import restrictions in other countries will have a major impact on our foreign trade, unless Taiwan takes the initiative to cut emission levels and strengthen its negotiation mechanisms. For example, demands that all exports be included in greenhouse gas emission reduction standards and that energy efficiency standards be improved may become a basic export standard.
Inability to meet these requirements would create export difficulties, which would have an impact on major Taiwanese industries such as the semiconductor, liquid-crystal display, steel, cement, textile, home electronics and auto industries.
Even while it was considering whether or not to sign the Kyoto Protocol, the government continued to develop industries which generate large amounts of carbon dioxide, as well as large volumes of wastewater, such as the sixth naphtha cracking plant in Mailiao, Yunlin County, which raised Taiwan's carbon dioxide emissions by tens of millions of tonnes in a few years.
The government also ignored overall environmental pollution and emission controls, and it continues to promote industries with low production volumes and high energy consumption that create high levels of carbon dioxide emissions and large volumes of wastewater. Such industries include the steel works the China Steel Group is planning in the Taichung harbor district, with an annual production volume of 2 million tonnes, China Petroleum's planned second 1-million-tonne ethylene investment in Kaohsiung, and the plan to set up a petroleum technology park and plants in Yunlin.
Almost 98 percent of Taiwan's energy is imported. Given the high levels of greenhouse gas emissions and the high cost of cutting these emissions, the Environmental Protection Administration estimates that if carbon dioxide emissions in the energy sector are to be cut to 10 tonnes per capita by 2020, the marginal cost of cutting carbon dioxide emissions by 1 tonne will be US$400 per person, or about ten times the cost in other industries (using US examples). The marginal cost to cut carbon dioxide emissions is almost the highest in the world, and that has a serious impact on industrial competitiveness.
As a reaction to the impact the Kyoto Protocol has on Taiwanese industry, the government should call a national meeting on sustainable development as soon as possible. The meeting should review national energy and industrial policy; develop industries with a high production value and low energy consumption; discuss improving energy efficiency and develop related energy technology; discuss concrete strategies to implement mass transportation systems and cut down on transportation by private car; stop highway development plans, including the highway from Suao to Hualien; and develop industries using renewable energy.
From a legal perspective, the legislature should pass renewable energy legislation, a power industry law and a non-nuclear homeland law in order to facilitate the development of renewable energy in Taiwan.
In order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, the government should promote the use of renewable energy and develop wind, solar and biomass power, divert peak-time electricity consumption and reduce carbon dioxide emissions. It should also implement a new billing system to give those who use renewable energy a reduced price, and incorporate the increasingly mature solar-photonic technology.
If this is done, by 2010 it will be possible for Taiwan to provide 10 percent of its total power consumption needs by means of renewable energy sources that do not create greenhouse gases.
When it comes to waste recycling and reutilization, the government should review its incinerator policies and actively promote strategies to reduce waste of recyclable resources. Currently, there are 21 large incinerators in Taiwan, and almost all of them operate 24 hours a day, which has become a major source of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
Therefore, the government should put theory into practice by reinforcing diversified reutilization of organic waste and setting up manure composting plants and biomass energy facilities. The government should also improve the public transportation system and promote eco-friendly means of personal transportation, such as electric motorcycles and bicycles.
In metropolitan areas with a high population density, the efficiency of public transportation should be evaluated and the public should be encouraged to make use of such facilities in order to slow the increase in personal cars and motorcycles, and cut down on urban air pollution and the greenhouse effect.
Although the GDP increased by 5.3 percent last year, this figure does not represent real benefits to Taiwanese. According to estimates of Taiwan's "green" Gross National Product published by the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, the depletion of natural resources and deteriorating environmental quality have in recent years created annual losses amounting to about NT$120 billion (US$3.5 billion).
In other words, inappropriate industrial development and environmental management failures have already caused a severe environmental catastrophe. As the Kyoto Protocol is about to come into effect, governmental bodies should boldly face facts and improve response mechanisms, and the premier should convene and establish an interdepartmental task force.
We should not develop nuclear power to escape the problem of carbon dioxide emissions. Even though carbon dioxide emissions are lower at nuclear power plants, the extraction and refinement of uranium and nuclear waste management extracts a higher cost than carbon dioxide emissions. This point is often omitted or ignored. Using nuclear power to avoid the problem of greenhouse gases is practically the same as quenching a thirst with poison.
Chen Jiau-hua is chairwoman of the Taiwan Environmental Protection Union.
Translated by Ya-ti Lin and Perry Svensson
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