Today's political leaders in the US, Taiwan and China are repeating old arguments and old ideas. Everyone talks either of "peace" or the dangers of "war." In Taiwan there is the opportunistic desire to curry favor with China by predicting defeat and disaster. There is also the blustering argument that China will have to pay a huge price if it attacks Taiwan.
Thankfully, there is another strategy. It is one based on the continuum of martial arts responses, a strategy to successfully defend the country and the individual that will last throughout the attack and create a secure future.
In addition to purchasing military equipment, President Chen Shui-bian (
Taiwan should be clear that Beijing is changing the status quo when and if it passes any law that prohibits the "independence" of Taiwan, or that declares an ultimatum or schedule for invading Taiwan.
Here are a few agenda items. First, in an imitation of the US' Homeland Security Notices, create a system of colored warnings that indicate the level of threat from China. Each warning level would have specific consequences.
Second, the first warning would deal with the 600 missiles along China's southeastern coast. The government should disallow any Taiwanese investment in areas close to these missiles. The rationale for this is that these sites would be military targets in case of hostilities. If Taiwanese people or Taiwanese property are endangered by the outbreak of war, then they could be held as hostages by China. In addition, the effort to compensate for their loss of property and loss of life would severely affect Taiwan's economy and sense of responsibility for the welfare of its people.
Third, a second-level warning should result in urging the US and other investors in China to limit their investments in provinces which have become a launching pad for intimidating or invading Taiwan. Once again, these territories are able to increase their military capacity because of foreign investment, which also promotes the development of transportation links, communication facilities and modern technologies.
Four, the third level of danger should increase Taiwan's attempt to seek military alliances and allies in East Asia. Support for Japan's bid to gain a seat in the UN Security Council should be followed with joint military exercises with South Korea and more strategic coordination with neighboring countries.
Fifth, the final level of danger should trigger a massive international political campaign -- namely the establishment of a geographical base for a government in exile, the open support for the independence of Hong Kong, Xinjiang and Tibet, and initial preparations for war crimes trials in other countries against China's leadership.
The government should prepare its citizens by establishing an intra-governmental committee to determine the costs of the current and future situation with a hostile China. It should also account for the amount of research necessary to study China's military and political leaders, the amount of resources used to protect, defend and monitor Taiwanese companies and individuals working in China, and the economic opportunities that would be lost by having Beijing embargo or restrict Taiwan's economic, political, cultural and social initiatives.
The government should include a public document that predicts Taiwan's economic loss if it joins with China. If we take Hong Kong and Tibet as examples, we will conclude that the economic effect on Taiwan will be to make it a neo-colony of China. Taiwan will have its industries hollowed out, its imports and exports dictated by Beijing's needs -- not by market forces, or by policies protective of Taiwan -- and will return to a repressive cultural system that will increase costs for a socially dysfunctional system.
The language will be forced to change, social customs will be harshly altered and newfound freedoms will be suppressed. The result will be a rise in deviant behavior, mental health breakdowns, decreased population growth and a rise in illegal organizations and activities.
After presenting the above analyses, it will become clear that the defense budget is a small price to pay to keep Taiwan from incurring the extra expenses of paying for a war strategy of defensive and countervailing stages.
Richard Kagan is a professor of history at Hamline University.
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
During the “426 rally” organized by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party under the slogan “fight green communism, resist dictatorship,” leaders from the two opposition parties framed it as a battle against an allegedly authoritarian administration led by President William Lai (賴清德). While criticism of the government can be a healthy expression of a vibrant, pluralistic society, and protests are quite common in Taiwan, the discourse of the 426 rally nonetheless betrayed troubling signs of collective amnesia. Specifically, the KMT, which imposed 38 years of martial law in Taiwan from 1949 to 1987, has never fully faced its
RSS