Sat, Oct 16, 2004 page8

• Take steps to counter China threat

  • By Richard Kagan
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  Today's political leaders in the US, Taiwan and China are repeating old arguments and old ideas. Everyone talks either of "peace" or the dangers of "war." In Taiwan there is the opportunistic desire to curry favor with China by predicting defeat and disaster. There is also the blustering argument that China will have to pay a huge price if it attacks Taiwan.

  Thankfully, there is another strategy. It is one based on the continuum of martial arts responses, a strategy to successfully defend the country and the individual that will last throughout the attack and create a secure future.

  In addition to purchasing military equipment, President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) should take a more aggressive stance in preparing for Taiwan's survival. There should be some clear triggers that announce the beginning of a war and the defense of the nation. These triggers should involve planning for long-term consequences.

  Taiwan should be clear that Beijing is changing the status quo when and if it passes any law that prohibits the "independence" of Taiwan, or that declares an ultimatum or schedule for invading Taiwan.

  Here are a few agenda items. First, in an imitation of the US' Homeland Security Notices, create a system of colored warnings that indicate the level of threat from China. Each warning level would have specific consequences.

  Second, the first warning would deal with the 600 missiles along China's southeastern coast. The government should disallow any Taiwanese investment in areas close to these missiles. The rationale for this is that these sites would be military targets in case of hostilities. If Taiwanese people or Taiwanese property are endangered by the outbreak of war, then they could be held as hostages by China. In addition, the effort to compensate for their loss of property and loss of life would severely affect Taiwan's economy and sense of responsibility for the welfare of its people.

  Third, a second-level warning should result in urging the US and other investors in China to limit their investments in provinces which have become a launching pad for intimidating or invading Taiwan. Once again, these territories are able to increase their military capacity because of foreign investment, which also promotes the development of transportation links, communication facilities and modern technologies.

  Four, the third level of danger should increase Taiwan's attempt to seek military alliances and allies in East Asia. Support for Japan's bid to gain a seat in the UN Security Council should be followed with joint military exercises with South Korea and more strategic coordination with neighboring countries.

  Fifth, the final level of danger should trigger a massive international political campaign -- namely the establishment of a geographical base for a government in exile, the open support for the independence of Hong Kong, Xinjiang and Tibet, and initial preparations for war crimes trials in other countries against China's leadership.

  The government should prepare its citizens by establishing an intra-governmental committee to determine the costs of the current and future situation with a hostile China. It should also account for the amount of research necessary to study China's military and political leaders, the amount of resources used to protect, defend and monitor Taiwanese companies and individuals working in China, and the economic opportunities that would be lost by having Beijing embargo or restrict Taiwan's economic, political, cultural and social initiatives.

  The government should include a public document that predicts Taiwan's economic loss if it joins with China. If we take Hong Kong and Tibet as examples, we will conclude that the economic effect on Taiwan will be to make it a neo-colony of China. Taiwan will have its industries hollowed out, its imports and exports dictated by Beijing's needs -- not by market forces, or by policies protective of Taiwan -- and will return to a repressive cultural system that will increase costs for a socially dysfunctional system.

  The language will be forced to change, social customs will be harshly altered and newfound freedoms will be suppressed. The result will be a rise in deviant behavior, mental health breakdowns, decreased population growth and a rise in illegal organizations and activities.

  After presenting the above analyses, it will become clear that the defense budget is a small price to pay to keep Taiwan from incurring the extra expenses of paying for a war strategy of defensive and countervailing stages.

  Richard Kagan is a professor of history at Hamline University.
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