The now-complete ascent of Chinese President Hu Jintao (
Part of the coming changes will be in style. Hu is regarded as a reserved, even self-effacing technocrat in contrast to the abrasive and sometimes pompous Jiang. Hu is an engineer who has climbed the political ladder by sticking to the party line, avoiding controversy and keeping his own counsel.
Those who look to Hu for political reform will probably be disappointed. He was ruthless in suppressing Tibetans seeking autonomy and religious freedom while he headed the party apparatus there from 1988 to 1992. In recent speeches, Hu has scorned Western democracy as a "blind alley" that would lead China to a "dead end."
And last week, Hu affirmed his belief in the authority of the Communist Party when he lauded "a great solidarity among all political parties, communities, ethnic groups, social groups and all China-loving people under the leadership of the CCP."
As a China hand in the US asserts: "He is a CCP man to the core."
Moreover, Hu is confronted by enormous domestic problems, including 40 percent unemployment and underemployment, an inadequate healthcare system, rampant pollution, a corrupt banking sector, inefficient state-owned enterprises and an uncertain supply of energy and raw materials for China's growing economy.
Thus, Hu may not be as confrontational as Jiang toward the US, particularly when China enjoys a US$150 billion export market there, by far China's largest. Moreover, the US, along with Japan and Taiwan, are major sources of direct foreign investment in China, providing technology and jobs.
Even so, Hu evinces the fear of many Chinese leaders that the US is forging an "arc of containment" around China. A scholar at the Singapore Institute for International Affairs, Eric Teo (
Hu and the US, however, will continue to make common cause in seeking to dissuade North Korea from acquiring nuclear weapons. Hu will likely be tougher on North Korea than Jiang because he is more pragmatic, less ideological and wants to preclude Pyongyang from selling nuclear arms and missiles to other rogue nations or terrorists.
With South Korea, Hu will continue the effort to wean Seoul away from its alliance with the US and to coax the South Koreans into submissive relations with Beijing like those of China's dynastic days. China has asserted that the ancient Korean kingdom of Koguryo was actually part of China, a claim that has angered Koreans.
Hu's approach to Japan will apparently differ from that of Jiang, who stirred animosity during his visit to Tokyo in 1998 by accusing Japan of failing to acknowledge its responsibilities for WWII. In contrast, this week in Beijing Hu met with Yohei Kono, speaker of the Diet's lower house, and sought to encourage good relations with a Japan that is becoming more assertive.
On Taiwan, Hu shares the views of Jiang, which is to say that Taiwan belongs to China and China will use military force to conquer the island if people there do not submit. In Hu's presence this week, Jiang said he preferred "peaceful reunification" but that "we shall by no means make the commitment to forsake the use of force. This is a major political principle."
There is no reason to believe that Hu disagreed.
Richard Halloran is a freelance writer based in Hawaii.
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
During the “426 rally” organized by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party under the slogan “fight green communism, resist dictatorship,” leaders from the two opposition parties framed it as a battle against an allegedly authoritarian administration led by President William Lai (賴清德). While criticism of the government can be a healthy expression of a vibrant, pluralistic society, and protests are quite common in Taiwan, the discourse of the 426 rally nonetheless betrayed troubling signs of collective amnesia. Specifically, the KMT, which imposed 38 years of martial law in Taiwan from 1949 to 1987, has never fully faced its
RSS