In the wake of President Chen Shui-bian's (
Future historians will probably agree that Taiwan's greatest problem in the last two decades has been its absolute inability to come up with a rational policy to deal with China. The reason why no such policy was ever forthcoming has a lot to do with the ambivalence of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), which governed for the vast majority of this period, toward Taiwan.
Much of this ambivalence was the result of the divide in the KMT between an old guard which loathed Taiwan independence as "anti-Chinese" and an affront to their dreams of a powerful China seeking its place in the world, and the Taiwan-firsters like former president and KMT chairman Lee Teng-hui (
But there has also been miscalculation. Originally, investment in China was allowed simply because it was happening anyway and nobody had the nerve to start prosecuting businessmen for investing there. Once China had tasted the fruits of this investment, so the thinking went, it would be willing to make concessions for such things as direct links. Such thinking, however, was wrong.
What happened is that Taiwan's economy has become a virtual hostage to China. Lee tried to stop this rot in 1996 with his "no haste, be patient" policy. But as the economy weakened after the 2000 election, a panicky Chen actually abandoned Lee's policy, putting the concerns of a heavily China-invested business elite over national security and the electorate's economic well-being. Chen has continued to make concessions to China and has just as continuously been rebuffed in everything he has done, while Taiwan's position has weakened with each passing month.
How can this rot be stopped? Only the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) seems to be asking this question. This week it released a legislative election campaign manifesto which contained some good ideas. Plugging the drain of capital outflow to China is of course vital, as is beefing up the military. A wholesale shift in the values of the education system toward the promotion of Taiwanese consciousness is also needed.
But what really impresses is that while everyone complains about Taiwan being bullied, the TSU has given thought to what to do about it. The suggestion that all Chinese visiting Taiwan should have to take an oath recognizing that Taiwan is not part of China is exactly the kind of niggling irritant that is needed to show that two can play China's game.
It is not that Taiwan wants to promote conflict. It is quite willing to work with Beijing if Beijing is reasonable. But when Beijing shows no signs of changing its attitude, it is perhaps time to replace the kid gloves and the outstretched hand with a mailed fist.
If you had a vision of the future where China did not dominate the global car industry, you can kiss those dreams goodbye. That is because US President Donald Trump’s promised 25 percent tariff on auto imports takes an ax to the only bits of the emerging electric vehicle (EV) supply chain that are not already dominated by Beijing. The biggest losers when the levies take effect this week would be Japan and South Korea. They account for one-third of the cars imported into the US, and as much as two-thirds of those imported from outside North America. (Mexico and Canada, while
US President Donald Trump’s challenge to domestic American economic-political priorities, and abroad to the global balance of power, are not a threat to the security of Taiwan. Trump’s success can go far to contain the real threat — the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) surge to hegemony — while offering expanded defensive opportunities for Taiwan. In a stunning affirmation of the CCP policy of “forceful reunification,” an obscene euphemism for the invasion of Taiwan and the destruction of its democracy, on March 13, 2024, the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) used Chinese social media platforms to show the first-time linkage of three new
I have heard people equate the government’s stance on resisting forced unification with China or the conditional reinstatement of the military court system with the rise of the Nazis before World War II. The comparison is absurd. There is no meaningful parallel between the government and Nazi Germany, nor does such a mindset exist within the general public in Taiwan. It is important to remember that the German public bore some responsibility for the horrors of the Holocaust. Post-World War II Germany’s transitional justice efforts were rooted in a national reckoning and introspection. Many Jews were sent to concentration camps not
Deflation in China is persisting, raising growing concerns domestically and internationally. Beijing’s stimulus policies introduced in September last year have largely been short-lived in financial markets and negligible in the real economy. Recent data showing disproportionately low bank loan growth relative to the expansion of the money supply suggest the limited effectiveness of the measures. Many have urged the government to take more decisive action, particularly through fiscal expansion, to avoid a deep deflationary spiral akin to Japan’s experience in the early 1990s. While Beijing’s policy choices remain uncertain, questions abound about the possible endgame for the Chinese economy if no decisive
RSS