In the wake of President Chen Shui-bian's (
Future historians will probably agree that Taiwan's greatest problem in the last two decades has been its absolute inability to come up with a rational policy to deal with China. The reason why no such policy was ever forthcoming has a lot to do with the ambivalence of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), which governed for the vast majority of this period, toward Taiwan.
Much of this ambivalence was the result of the divide in the KMT between an old guard which loathed Taiwan independence as "anti-Chinese" and an affront to their dreams of a powerful China seeking its place in the world, and the Taiwan-firsters like former president and KMT chairman Lee Teng-hui (
But there has also been miscalculation. Originally, investment in China was allowed simply because it was happening anyway and nobody had the nerve to start prosecuting businessmen for investing there. Once China had tasted the fruits of this investment, so the thinking went, it would be willing to make concessions for such things as direct links. Such thinking, however, was wrong.
What happened is that Taiwan's economy has become a virtual hostage to China. Lee tried to stop this rot in 1996 with his "no haste, be patient" policy. But as the economy weakened after the 2000 election, a panicky Chen actually abandoned Lee's policy, putting the concerns of a heavily China-invested business elite over national security and the electorate's economic well-being. Chen has continued to make concessions to China and has just as continuously been rebuffed in everything he has done, while Taiwan's position has weakened with each passing month.
How can this rot be stopped? Only the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) seems to be asking this question. This week it released a legislative election campaign manifesto which contained some good ideas. Plugging the drain of capital outflow to China is of course vital, as is beefing up the military. A wholesale shift in the values of the education system toward the promotion of Taiwanese consciousness is also needed.
But what really impresses is that while everyone complains about Taiwan being bullied, the TSU has given thought to what to do about it. The suggestion that all Chinese visiting Taiwan should have to take an oath recognizing that Taiwan is not part of China is exactly the kind of niggling irritant that is needed to show that two can play China's game.
It is not that Taiwan wants to promote conflict. It is quite willing to work with Beijing if Beijing is reasonable. But when Beijing shows no signs of changing its attitude, it is perhaps time to replace the kid gloves and the outstretched hand with a mailed fist.
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