Taiwan, the US and China all held military exercises in June. This did not just affect the geopolitical situation throughout the west Pacific region. As the Taiwan Strait is one of three international hot spots in the Asia-Pacific region, this series of military exercises has also been given an uncommon amount of attention by international observers.
The reasons behind the military exercises are mainly the intensifying stand-off between Taiwan and China, and competition between the US and China for dominance in the Asia-Pacific region. This will continue once they end their cooperation in the war on terror.
If we want to understand the effect of these developments, we must approach the issue from a military perspective and base our analysis on international power politics and global strategic structures in order to clarify what attitudes and threats the nation will face in this great competition. We must also call on the people of Taiwan to take seriously international realities and crises that may have a negative impact on the nation.
Firstly, looking at the military exercise just completed in Taiwan, I must affirm the excellent training and warfare techniques displayed by the military in this, the 20th, Hankuang exercise. Although criticism of the exercise makes sense (including doubts about the ease with which temporary wartime landing fields can be destroyed and technical aspects regarding refueling bomb-carrying aircraft), the flaws can hide neither its splendor, nor the army's hard work and the destructive power of the Mirage fighters. It should be noted that after the transition of power in Taiwan in 2000 and the announcement of the goal of keeping a decisive war off the island announced by President Chen Shui-bian and the defense ministry, the military has been moving toward realizing this concept. It should achieve it in the next military upgrade. Some inkling of it could be seen during the Mirage exercises.
Secondly, let's look at China's military exercise. In contrast to earlier exercises on Dongshan Island, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) is clearly beginning to focus on air superiority. The recent exercise used almost every advanced weapon conceivable, including Su-27 fighter planes, FBC-1 mid-range bombers, WZ-9 attack helicopters, Sovremenny-class destroyers, Kilo-class submarines and East Wind-15 tactical ballistic missiles. The Sukhoi 27 fighter planes will also carry KN59M air-to-surface missiles to protect tanks during a landing operation. Taken together, it all points to a new concept of joint warfare against Taiwan, with the army, navy, air force and second artillery corps taking part in exercises to improve the PLA's overall war capabilities. Taiwan's military must not underestimate these trends.
In addition, compared to Taiwan's military exercises, which mainly focus on arms that still have to be delivered, the PLA is more pragmatic. Not only do they base their exercises on arms they already have, they are also better at simulating actual war situations.
This year is an election year in the US. China's display of its military force is unmistakably aimed at the US, and it is also an attempt to affect the direction of US politics. As we all know, Washington has always had its China-friendly "red" team. These people will of course take action in an election year. They are certain to unite anti-Taiwanese forces in the Democratic Party to take control of China policy if the Democratic party wins. Their success would be quite detrimental to Taiwan's situation, and our government should give further thought on how to handle such a situation.
It should be noted that, up to this point at least, the US still sees China as the potential enemy in its military exercises in the Asia-Pacific region. Following an end to the war in Iraq, US control over the Middle East will no longer be a military matter, and will instead become a political matter. The US is therefore certain to shift the focus of its attention to the Asia-Pacific region, in particular the situation in the Taiwan Strait and in North Korea.
As a result of the recent presidential election in Taiwan, however, Taiwan consciousness, as represented by Chen's government, has now gained the support of a majority of Taiwanese. Taiwan's growing nationalism and the initiation of a referendum will have an impact on international politics in the Asia-Pacific region over the coming 10 years.
While the US military exercises were routine, following the statement by China's former leader Jiang Zemin (
I can of course not put blind hope in US promises concerning Taiwan's security, but regardless of whether we take a geopolitical or a democratic approach, Taiwan is one of the US' most important allies in the Asia-Pacific region.
Given the gradual rise of China, making it today's dominant regional power, the Taiwan-US relationship should be strengthened in response to possible future changes in the Southeast Asian region, and to jointly protect and maintain not only the interests of Taiwan and the US, but peace and security in the region.
Holmes Liao is an adviser to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Translated by Perry Svensson
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