China's government has not only ignored the conciliatory tone of President Chen Shui-bian's (
There have now been three presidential elections in Taiwan, and attempts by Beijing to influence the outcome of each have proven ineffective. The idea of "one country on either side of the strait" has become accepted among Taiwan's grassroots, and this year's election result has confirmed "Taiwanese consciousness" as the majority opinion. The conflict between Beijing and Taipei has therefore entered a new stage.
In Beijing, the Jiang Zemin (
The menacing aspect of those involved in Taiwan affairs and the official media is an indication of difficulties created by the struggle for succession. The harsh language used by the Taiwan Affairs Office, the People's Daily and Xinhua News Agency succeeds superficially in putting down Taiwan, but what it really indicates is that the realization of the Chinese people's dream of democratic reform is receding ever further into the distance.
Targeting the Chi Mei Group (
As China has overtaken the US as Taiwan's main export market, Taipei's political sensibilities are continually at the mercy of Beijing's maneuvering. But trade runs both ways, and capital's movement powerfully shapes interactions between nations. Given the degree to which China is dependant on Taiwanese businesses and the extent that multinational companies permeate their markets, the threats that Beijing has leveled against the Chi Mei Group are reminiscent of the actions of the Society of Harmonious Fists during the Boxer Revolution. While these threats indicate internal pressures within China's government, the ultimate result may impact upon that nation's financial structures, which are already rife with problems. If this slow-moving giant starts to wield his club, it is more likely that he will hit himself in the head rather than strike his more nimble opponent.
Yet this unwieldy club deters westward expansion by Taiwanese businesses. This helps the Chen administration, which wants to widen trade on an international basis. It has also given force to former President Lee Teng-hui's adherence to the insightful policy of "no haste, be patient" (
China's massive bureaucracy is corrupt and unprofessional. Its leaders must adopt macro-economic controls on investment to prevent a chain reaction that will bring down its financial system. But with its overdependence on foreign investment to fuel growth, China is being pulled in opposing directions.
A fundamental principle of political strategy is to "find the right pretext to wage war " (師出有名). Chen has a firm handle on the discourse of "peace," an issue that China, Taiwan, the US and other leading powers are all constrained to respect. Now that Taiwan has achieved a consensus about facing China's threats with docility, even as China chooses to play the club-wielding giant, the time of awakening has come for the international community.
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
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