Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo is ascendant going into Monday's elections but old millstones of debt, graft, poverty and division await her, or any other leader, from the first day in office.
Financial markets have taken heart from four surveys showing Arroyo pushing past macho film star and political novice Fernando Poe, Jr (FPJ) in the home stretch of the 90-day campaign.
While the "familiarity factor" is Arroyo's main attraction, investors will quickly refocus on the health of debt levels, tax collection, exports and the peso, said Mike Moran, regional economist at Standard Chartered Bank in Hong Kong.
"Her track record on the economic side over the past few years hasn't been particularly good," he said. "What we need is just a steady ship for two, maybe three, years and then some of the problems in terms of the debt will be far easier to resolve."
Arroyo, an economist, has put a tiny dent in entrenched corruption, kept the budget deficit in check and resumed talks about peace with Muslim and communist rebels.
But the government borrows frequently to make payments on debt of US$61 billion to keep itself running, with little left to narrow vast regional and social disparities. Security, graft and legal uncertainties remain as major concerns for investors.
PLENTY OF PROBLEMS
"I don't think it makes any difference whether you elect Gloria or you elect FPJ," said Scott Harrison, managing director of Manila-based risk consultancy Pacific Strategies & Assessments and a former official at the CIA.
"Both of them will not be able to solve the problems of the Philippines. They don't have the resources," he said.
Beyond being short of money, any leader must somehow align the differing interests of a clan-based elite, 30 million people in dire poverty, the Roman Catholic church, a Muslim minority and a military that has spawned nine coup attempts in 18 years.
Arroyo softened her image as determined but distant with the singing and dancing that is the lifeblood of politics here.
She relied mainly on the best bits of her record and state machinery as Poe squandered a large lead by leaning on his film roles as a gun-toting hero to the underdog and giving only rudimentary details of his vision for 82 million Filipinos.
If the opinion polls are accurate, Arroyo will beat Poe narrowly and three other challengers handily.
But to push her reforms, or even get this year's stalled budget passed, her allies must win enough of the 17,000 congressional, provincial and local seats also up for grabs on Monday.
Despite an anti-fraud pact by parties, stuffed ballot boxes, bribed voters, violence and lawsuits are inevitable.
The count from thousands of islands may also take weeks to confirm the winners.
One Asian diplomat said he hoped for fair, peaceful elections and "a stable and clean government with more technocrats and fewer politicians in the Cabinet."
"Do pigs fly?" he said.
"That's why I have my concerns," he added.
MORE ENEMIES
Regardless of her mandate, Arroyo also faces hostility from millions of poor voters who see her as a usurper who rose from vice president when the elite engineered the overthrow of their man, popular former actor Joseph Estrada, in January 2001.
Estrada, Poe's long-time drinking buddy, will remain a potent force well after the election, even from his detention cell as he stands trial on charges of economic plunder.
Some of the powerful clans, including the Marcoses and their allies who grew rich while ruling the Philippines for 21 years, are likely to continue resisting efforts to alter the status quo.
The winner will face immense challenges but Filipinos may be closer to embracing the need for national unity, said Roberto de Ocampo, president of the Asian Institute of Management and finance secretary from 1992 to 1998.
"I am hoping the country is exhausted enough from a long string of negative news that it may be just the sort of crisis feeling that would make people get together," he said.
"I think we have gotten to the point where people will say the alternative is going to be a lot worse," he said.
A nation has several pillars of national defense, among them are military strength, energy and food security, and national unity. Military strength is very much on the forefront of the debate, while several recent editorials have dealt with energy security. National unity and a sense of shared purpose — especially while a powerful, hostile state is becoming increasingly menacing — are problematic, and would continue to be until the nation’s schizophrenia is properly managed. The controversy over the past few days over former navy lieutenant commander Lu Li-shih’s (呂禮詩) usage of the term “our China” during an interview about his attendance
Following the BRICS summit held in Kazan, Russia, last month, media outlets circulated familiar narratives about Russia and China’s plans to dethrone the US dollar and build a BRICS-led global order. Each summit brings renewed buzz about a BRICS cross-border payment system designed to replace the SWIFT payment system, allowing members to trade without using US dollars. Articles often highlight the appeal of this concept to BRICS members — bypassing sanctions, reducing US dollar dependence and escaping US influence. They say that, if widely adopted, the US dollar could lose its global currency status. However, none of these articles provide
Bo Guagua (薄瓜瓜), the son of former Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee Politburo member and former Chongqing Municipal Communist Party secretary Bo Xilai (薄熙來), used his British passport to make a low-key entry into Taiwan on a flight originating in Canada. He is set to marry the granddaughter of former political heavyweight Hsu Wen-cheng (許文政), the founder of Luodong Poh-Ai Hospital in Yilan County’s Luodong Township (羅東). Bo Xilai is a former high-ranking CCP official who was once a challenger to Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) for the chairmanship of the CCP. That makes Bo Guagua a bona fide “third-generation red”
US president-elect Donald Trump earlier this year accused Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) of “stealing” the US chip business. He did so to have a favorable bargaining chip in negotiations with Taiwan. During his first term from 2017 to 2021, Trump demanded that European allies increase their military budgets — especially Germany, where US troops are stationed — and that Japan and South Korea share more of the costs for stationing US troops in their countries. He demanded that rich countries not simply enjoy the “protection” the US has provided since the end of World War II, while being stingy with
RSS