On Thursday, US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage announced in a televised interview that the US has some specific hopes regarding the May 20 inauguration speech of President Chen Shui-bian (
High-ranking Presidential Office staff members immediately indicated in private that the so-called "five noes" pledge will be reiterated in the inauguration speech, although not in exactly the same words.
Because this all came about after a US visit by Presidential Office Secretary-General Chiou I-Jen (
Reviewing Chen's first term, despite controversies and debates regarding the cross-strait policy, it is safe to conclude that he kept his word. Neither Lee's "special state-to-state" discourse nor Chen's own talk about "one country on each side" of the Taiwan Strait, which many deem to be a continuation of Lee's policy, have been incorporated into the Constitution. The defensive referendum held simultaneously with the presidential election, which had supposedly caused much concern in the US, had nothing to do with the independence-unification issue.
However, does this mean that the cross-strait status quo has been maintained? Obviously this is not the case. For one, consistent with the rise of nativist consciousness in Taiwan in past decades, the Taiwanese sense of national identity has reached an all-time high -- although many still feel that there is a long way to go in this regard. This is demonstrated by Chen's electoral defeat of KMT Chairman Lien Chan (
Moreover, one can hardly argue that the cross-strait status quo is being maintained when the imbalance between the military powers on both sides of the Taiwan Strait has reached a new extreme. This was confirmed by US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs James Kelly during a congressional hearing last week, in which he said that over the past 25 years China has repeatedly reassured the US of its willingness to peacefully resolve the Taiwan issue, but in practice it has continued to increase the number of missiles targeting Taiwan by 50 to 75 each year.
So while all expectations are on Taiwan to exercise self-restraint, which Taiwan has largely done, what is being done to keep China from losing control? Can anything be done to accomplish that goal?
If maintaining the status quo means that Taiwan cannot have any presence in the international community -- even when sensitive sovereignty issues are not touched, as in the inability of Taiwan to merely obtain observer status as a "health entity" -- it is no wonder that the popular will in Taiwan is hungrily looking for other options.
Concerns that the US might abandon Taiwan are often overstated. While US President Donald Trump’s handling of Ukraine raised unease in Taiwan, it is crucial to recognize that Taiwan is not Ukraine. Under Trump, the US views Ukraine largely as a European problem, whereas the Indo-Pacific region remains its primary geopolitical focus. Taipei holds immense strategic value for Washington and is unlikely to be treated as a bargaining chip in US-China relations. Trump’s vision of “making America great again” would be directly undermined by any move to abandon Taiwan. Despite the rhetoric of “America First,” the Trump administration understands the necessity of
US President Donald Trump’s challenge to domestic American economic-political priorities, and abroad to the global balance of power, are not a threat to the security of Taiwan. Trump’s success can go far to contain the real threat — the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) surge to hegemony — while offering expanded defensive opportunities for Taiwan. In a stunning affirmation of the CCP policy of “forceful reunification,” an obscene euphemism for the invasion of Taiwan and the destruction of its democracy, on March 13, 2024, the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) used Chinese social media platforms to show the first-time linkage of three new
If you had a vision of the future where China did not dominate the global car industry, you can kiss those dreams goodbye. That is because US President Donald Trump’s promised 25 percent tariff on auto imports takes an ax to the only bits of the emerging electric vehicle (EV) supply chain that are not already dominated by Beijing. The biggest losers when the levies take effect this week would be Japan and South Korea. They account for one-third of the cars imported into the US, and as much as two-thirds of those imported from outside North America. (Mexico and Canada, while
I have heard people equate the government’s stance on resisting forced unification with China or the conditional reinstatement of the military court system with the rise of the Nazis before World War II. The comparison is absurd. There is no meaningful parallel between the government and Nazi Germany, nor does such a mindset exist within the general public in Taiwan. It is important to remember that the German public bore some responsibility for the horrors of the Holocaust. Post-World War II Germany’s transitional justice efforts were rooted in a national reckoning and introspection. Many Jews were sent to concentration camps not
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