When Hong Kong reverted to Chinese rule in 1997, China promised the Special Administrative Region a high level of autonomy except in foreign affairs and national defense. Hong Kong was to retain its free market economy and its way of life for 50 years. Under Hong Kong's Basic Law, two democratic reforms were implicitly promised: the selection of the chief executive by universal suffrage after 2007, and an increase in the number of seats in the Legislative Council (LegCo)elected by the people after 2008.
On April 6, the Standing Committee of China's National People's Congress issued a binding interpretation of the Basic Law that it alone had the authority to determine the content and timing of any reform amendments. Hong Kong's leading pro-democracy lawmaker, Martin Lee (
Deng Xiaoping's (
Beijing's recent action to forestall democratic reform and Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa's (
There are, no doubt, some Taiwanese who would seriously consider unification with China once it evolved into a fully democratic country. There are US policymakers who support Taiwan's de facto independence from China but only until China becomes a democracy. The lesson from Hong Kong is that democracy in China is a pipe dream as long as the Chinese Communist Party is in control.
In contrast to Hong Kong, Taiwan has a great opportunity to develop its democracy. It has a brighter future than Hong Kong because it is different in several ways. Hong Kong has to rely on China for water and food. It has no choice but to become a part of China. Taiwan is a prosperous island, protected by the Taiwan Strait. It has the resources to be an independent nation. Hong Kong was ceded to Britain by an "unequal" treaty. Even those Hong Kong people who dislike Chinese rule would agree that Hong Kong's reversion to China was appropriate.
Taiwan was ceded by the Qing Dynasty to Japan in 1895. In the San Francisco Peace Treaty of 1952, Japan relinquished sovereignty over Taiwan, but no recipient was named. According to the principle of self-determination, only Taiwan's people can decide their future status.
The residents of Hong Kong are mainly Han people. The great majority of Taiwanese are a mixture of Chinese and Aboriginal people of Austronesian extraction.
The people of Hong Kong regard themselves as Chinese. The great majority of Taiwanese people identify themselves as Taiwanese. Only 10 percent call themselves "Chinese." The rise of this national consciousness is due to a unique history and a struggle to achieve Taiwan's "economic miracle" and democratization of a once-autocratic political system.
Taiwan is capable of defending its sovereignty, and now that it is a democracy, it has the support of fellow democracies, particularly the US and Japan, in continuing as a de facto independent nation.
To maintain the status quo, however, the newly reelected Democratic Progressive Party administration must carry out three crucial tasks: stem growing economic dependence on China, bolster Taiwan's national defense -- in terms of both hardware and building a national will to preserve freedom -- and improve relations with the US by fostering mutual trust. The work will be hard but necessary if Taiwan does not wish to become a second Hong Kong.
Li Thian-hok is a freelance commentator based in Pennsylvania.
Concerns that the US might abandon Taiwan are often overstated. While US President Donald Trump’s handling of Ukraine raised unease in Taiwan, it is crucial to recognize that Taiwan is not Ukraine. Under Trump, the US views Ukraine largely as a European problem, whereas the Indo-Pacific region remains its primary geopolitical focus. Taipei holds immense strategic value for Washington and is unlikely to be treated as a bargaining chip in US-China relations. Trump’s vision of “making America great again” would be directly undermined by any move to abandon Taiwan. Despite the rhetoric of “America First,” the Trump administration understands the necessity of
US President Donald Trump’s challenge to domestic American economic-political priorities, and abroad to the global balance of power, are not a threat to the security of Taiwan. Trump’s success can go far to contain the real threat — the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) surge to hegemony — while offering expanded defensive opportunities for Taiwan. In a stunning affirmation of the CCP policy of “forceful reunification,” an obscene euphemism for the invasion of Taiwan and the destruction of its democracy, on March 13, 2024, the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) used Chinese social media platforms to show the first-time linkage of three new
If you had a vision of the future where China did not dominate the global car industry, you can kiss those dreams goodbye. That is because US President Donald Trump’s promised 25 percent tariff on auto imports takes an ax to the only bits of the emerging electric vehicle (EV) supply chain that are not already dominated by Beijing. The biggest losers when the levies take effect this week would be Japan and South Korea. They account for one-third of the cars imported into the US, and as much as two-thirds of those imported from outside North America. (Mexico and Canada, while
The military is conducting its annual Han Kuang exercises in phases. The minister of national defense recently said that this year’s scenarios would simulate defending the nation against possible actions the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) might take in an invasion of Taiwan, making the threat of a speculated Chinese invasion in 2027 a heated agenda item again. That year, also referred to as the “Davidson window,” is named after then-US Indo-Pacific Command Admiral Philip Davidson, who in 2021 warned that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) had instructed the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. Xi in 2017